BTL marketing faces a crucial reckoning as CFOs demand performance accountability

New Delhi: Below-the-line (BTL) marketing in India is in the middle of its most visible transformation. Brands are spending more, consumers are expecting more, and physical experiences are becoming the much-needed counterbalance to an over-digitised world. Yet the more BTL grows, the more uncomfortable questions surface around measurement, attribution, and return on investment.

Despite the boom, experts warn that the industry still counts activity, not impact, and that BTL sits at a crossroads where AI, identity, and integrated measurement will decide whether it ascends into a performance-led discipline or remains a fragmented, intuition-driven space.

A crunch for accountability?

India’s BTL landscape has expanded rapidly across retail activation, experiential events, rural outreach, mall activations, samplings, demos, and on-ground branded content. But behind the boom lies a truth the industry rarely articulates.

“Let’s start with the truth everyone knows but rarely says aloud: BTL isn’t hard to measure. What’s hard is admitting what was never measured in the first place. Most brands measure activity, not impact,” Rahul Karwa, Chief Strategy Officer & Head Experiential at Interspace Communications, said without hesitation.

This uncomfortable gap between volume and value is what has dominated the last few years. Experts agree the boom is real, but the measurement rigour is not catching up at the same pace. The industry still leans heavily on superficial indicators.

As Mandeep Malhotra, Founder & CEO, Srishti Media, put it, “Today, most brands track BTL impact using surface-level indicators: footfall, samples distributed, engagement minutes, QR scans, and social chatter. These metrics show activity, not influence.”

Deepmala, Founder and CEO of The Visual House, echoed the same sentiment: “What we’re seeing today is that most brands are still measuring what’s convenient, not what’s conclusive.”

The increased appetite for on-ground experiences is particularly visible in rural markets, retail-heavy categories, and premium product launches. But as the lines blur between offline and digital journeys, brands want more defensible evidence that BTL is influencing behaviour, not just filling activation reports.

Vivek Das, Chief Digital Officer, Madison Media, underlined this shift. He said, “The industry is shifting from ‘vanity metrics’ to 'business outcomes.’” Historically, tracking relied on soft metrics like footfall, samples distributed, or "estimated reach." Today, we are deploying closed-loop measurement systems where experiential is no longer an isolated silo. We track impact by linking physical activation data (e.g., QR scans, geo-fenced engagement, missed calls, coupon redemptions, etc.) directly to digital conversion and sales data.”

The boom is real, but so is the pressure for proof.

Why does ROI still feel so elusive?

Despite rising spending, BTL ROI continues to exist in a grey zone. Experts cite multiple structural gaps, beginning with the industry’s chronic inability to define success at the start.

“Marketers today are investing serious money in experiential work, yet very few start with a clear definition of what success should look like. And if success isn’t defined at the beginning, it can’t magically appear in the report,” Karwa noted.

Identity continuity is another missing link. As Malhotra pointed out, “The biggest gap is identity continuity. We still don’t know who the consumer was, what they felt, and what they did next.”

The result is fragmented reporting across vendors, digital teams, CRM teams, and activation partners, with no consolidated view of the consumer journey. This fragmentation creates visibility gaps that directly lead to ROI uncertainty.

Deepmala summarised the attribution puzzle: “BTL creates experience, but proving its contribution to the final sale is still more art than science.”

Even when consumers are deeply engaged at an activation, the pathways to purchase are nonlinear, multi-channel, and often delayed. Offline experiences don’t automatically leave digital trails, which means outcomes become harder to attribute.

“ROI remains elusive because BTL data has historically been fragmented and offline.” Das highlighted the technical challenge and added that “there is a ‘data latency’ problem; by the time you analyse the impact, the campaign is over.”

The absence of unified measurement systems such as UMM or integrated CDPs compounds this. Without statistical attribution, BTL becomes correlation rather than causation. Furthermore, the emotional nature of BTL adds complexity. As Karwa explained, “When BTL works, it works because a human being feels something, and human behaviour rarely fits into a one-day Excel sheet.”

The problem is simple yet deep-rooted. BTL nudges, influences, and inspires, but these signals rarely get tracked all the way to commerce, making ROI feel elusive even when the impact is real.

The blind spots

A recurring challenge in India’s BTL is that measurement is often retrofitted rather than designed into the strategy. All four experts emphasise structural gaps that prevent meaningful attribution.

Karwa outlined the core structural lapses: “No baseline, no shared definition of success, no long-tail tracking.” Meanwhile, Deepmala cited the lack of unified frameworks. “The industry still doesn’t have a unified way of measuring BTL effectiveness,” she said.

Measurement today is fragmented. One vendor counts footfalls, another captures leads, and a third reports post-event sentiment, but no unified system connects experience to action to purchase to lifetime value, Malhotra said.

Even when brands attempt digital touchpoints like QR codes, couponing, and NFC, the adoption percentage remains low, leaving large parts of the engagement unmeasured. 

Deepmala captured this challenge well. “Offline experiences happen in messy, unpredictable spaces. Even when brands try to digitise touchpoints through QR codes or NFC tags, only a fraction of consumers actually take that extra step.”

This leads to the big question: Where does the value really go? If sales rise, which channel deserves credit? And how does one isolate BTL’s contribution from pricing, TV, digital, distribution, or seasonality?

Can AI solve BTL’s blind spots?

The industry unanimously agreed that AI will not magically “fix” BTL, but it will finally make it measurable at a level never seen before.

Karwa called out its cleansing power: “AI can clean that up fast. It can verify real human presence, deduplicate leads, and validate timestamps.” But more importantly, he said, “the true unlock is what AI tracks after the activation.”

Das positioned AI as the bridge between physical behaviour and digital proof: “AI is the bridge that connects physical engagement to digital data.”

From sentiment analysis to computer vision to predictive intelligence, AI is already reshaping how activations are designed and evaluated. Das noted that Madison’s systems use “image recognition for crowd analysis or sentiment analysis from voice feedback in rural campaigns, enabling attribution with depth.

Malhotra viewed AI as a foundational shift. “AI won’t just improve measurement; it can make BTL measurable like digital while retaining the depth only human experiences can create.”

But AI’s power depends on clean data inputs.

“AI cannot fill a vacuum. If on-ground interactions don’t generate structured data, the algorithms have nothing to learn from,” Deepmala cautioned.

Will AI change behaviour, budgets, and beliefs?

Across the board, experts see AI as the catalyst that will decide how much BTL grows and how long it stays relevant for CFOs.

“BTL is at a crossroads; either we modernise measurement with AI, or we risk being outpaced by channels that can prove performance,” said Malhotra. He added that “measurement confidence will decide the future of BTL.”

Deepmala reinforced the budgeting implications. “If measurement doesn’t evolve, rationalisation is inevitable. Budgets will shift towards digital and commerce media where attribution is clearer,” she said.

But the reverse is also true. “If BTL measurement matures, this channel could become one of the most valuable performance drivers,” she added.

Das similarly underscored a future where human connection remains irreplaceable: “Brands won’t cut BTL because the human connection it offers is irreplaceable; instead, they will consolidate spend with partners who can offer ‘measurable intimacy.’”

Karwa’s perspective stitched it full circle. “BTL won’t shrink. In a hyper-digital world, real human connection is becoming rare and valuable.”

The industry is not questioning BTL’s relevance; it is questioning its rigour.

What does the future look like?

The experts agreed that the next era of BTL in India will be defined by transparency, identity stitching, and AI-enabled attribution.

Deepmala mapped the long-term opportunity. “The day BTL becomes a true data-producing channel and not just an execution touchpoint, AI will unlock its full power.”

Malhotra emphasised the shift from execution to intelligence. “The industry doesn’t need more activations. It needs visibility, attribution and intelligence.”

“Our intent is simple: measure the person, not the moment,” Karwa underlined. “BTL won’t shrink. In a hyper‑digital world, real human connection is becoming rare - and valuable. But sharper accountability will become essential,” he added.

“There is a 'Replacement Risk' for any channel that cannot justify its existence on a P&L sheet. However, we don't see brands abandoning BTL; we see them evolving it. Our 2025 Report is forecasting robust growth in offline channels like OOH (+12%), and a resurgence in rural activation, driven by rising rural consumption and government infrastructure pushes. The brands that win in 2025 will be those that treat BTL not as a "spending" bucket, but as a "performance" channel, powered by the same rigour and data infrastructure as their digital media,” Das underscored.

Das also pointed to a future where every rupee is accountable: “The brands that win in 2025 will be those that treat BTL not as a ‘spending’ bucket, but as a ‘performance’ channel.”

India’s BTL market is entering a new chapter. The brands that lean into data, design measurement from Day 1, and integrate offline–online intelligence will lead the next era, where physical experiences and measurable business outcomes finally speak the same language.

“For that future to happen, the industry must move from doing more to proving more. From counting feet to mapping influence. From post-event reporting to built-in attribution. The brands that crack this evolution early won’t just protect their budgets; they’ll lead the next era where offline experience and measurable business growth finally speak the same language,” Deepmala summed it up.