US-Israel-Iran war puts ROAS back on the table as brands tighten discretionary ad spends

New Delhi: The ongoing US-Israel-Iran war is starting to reflect in how brands in India are approaching advertising spends. Experts say the mood has turned cautious, with marketers reassessing timing, messaging and allocation as global volatility and supply chain concerns weigh on sentiment.

“It’s important we acknowledge that these are tough times and it’s only right for brands to relook at their strategies before committing to ad spends," said Mitchelle Rozario Jansen, Senior Vice-President Business Strategy and Growth at White Rivers Media. 

She said brands are “adopting a prudent approach to advertising spends given the ongoing war’s influence on economic sentiment and especially supply chains.”

Yasin Hamidani, Director at Media Care Brand Solutions, said uncertainty typically brings a pause. “In the immediate term, brands typically adopt a wait-and-watch stance during geopolitical uncertainty,” he said.

That caution, executives said, usually shows up first in discretionary sectors. “Discretionary categories such as consumer durables, travel, real estate, and luxury are usually the first to slow or defer spending, as sentiment becomes cautious,” Hamidani said. “However, essential categories like FMCG, telecom, and e-commerce tend to remain stable.”

Vaishal Dalal, Co-founder of Excellent Publicity, said the same playbook applies now. “With the ongoing war injecting some uncertainty, we may see brands adopt a more cautious, wait-and-watch stance in the near term. Historically, during geopolitical tensions, discretionary sectors like travel, hospitality, luxury, and auto are often the first to tighten their ad spends,” he said.

Jansen said categories are already reviewing plans based on cost exposure and longer sales cycles. “Sectors such as FMCG and Auto tend to lead in making the pivots and reallocating their budgets, given their exposure to material costs and seasonal shifts. While real estate and durables follow right behind due to longer sales horizons,” she said. “Though we do see sturdy categories like Telecom and e-commerce categories as they focus their investments through targeted, data-led efforts.”

As scrutiny rises, budgets are being pushed harder on measurable impact. “They tend to focus more on ROI and favour performance-oriented digital tactics and platforms that deliver those clear returns,” Jansen said. 

She added that it is not always about cutting spends. “For some brands, it’s not about reducing Ad Spends but allocating them judiciously,” she said. “Brands lean into localised activations and e-commerce, which helps them with real-time consumer connections and overall steadiness.”

She said the money is also moving faster to demand-led surfaces. “We can also see adoption of agile strategies that are centred on quick commerce, and if they are looking at social engagement, it’s tied to strong domestic demand,” Jansen said.

Nikhil Rangnekar, CEO at MediaCircle, said the war could trigger immediate cuts from global travel and premium advertisers, especially as the Indian vacation season approaches. “Travel and hospitality sectors are the ones that will see maximum impact. Quite a few luxury brands in these categories, like Emirates, Tourism boards of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, Hilton etc., have been quite active and are likely to cut down on their ad spends with immediate effect. Since we are entering the Indian vacation season, the war will impact the business of these brands and their related categories significantly.” 

“Other big advertisers who are in the petroleum business, like Aramco and logistics businesses like DP World, will also cut down on their spends. If any of these brands were planning to advertise on IPL, they would most likely back out. IPL broadcasters might have to find replacements quickly. Having said that, the overall Indian adex market will remain stable due to strong domestic demand in most categories,” said Rangnekar.

Even so, agencies said big, committed properties typically stay resilient. Hamidani said the pressure may show up more in negotiations than in volume. “Large-scale properties like the IPL may experience tighter negotiations or slower deal closures, but marquee events with committed sponsorship contracts are generally resilient,” he said. 

He added that “Unless there are direct operational disruptions, advertising volumes are expected to hold steady, though brands may adjust messaging tone toward sensitivity and reassurance rather than celebration.”

Dalal echoed that view on marquee events. “Major properties like the IPL should remain largely insulated. Marquee events with huge fan followings continue to attract advertisers, and we expect sponsorship commitments to hold steady even if a few smaller players recalibrate their spends,” he said.

Jansen said the IPL’s pull is now amplified by integrated digital layers. “Properties like the IPL hold a very firm appeal for advertisers and sponsors, drawing on their massive domestic pull and festive timing as a key engagement hub,” she said. “Brand Investments flow into integrated digital tie-ups, such as streaming and social boosts, that increase reach and outcomes. This reliability positions such events as dependable avenues for brands seeking broad affinity amid wider challenges.”

Most executives do not expect a sharp correction in India’s overall AdEx unless the conflict escalates materially. “At this stage, India’s AdEx momentum is unlikely to see a sharp correction unless the situation escalates materially or impacts domestic consumption,” Hamidani said. “The market is relatively insulated compared to export-heavy economies.”

Dalal said any slowdown would likely be brief. “However, I don’t foresee a dramatic impact on overall Indian AdEx; the market is relatively resilient, and any slowdown will likely be temporary unless the conflict escalates significantly,” he said. “Overall, I’m confident India’s ad expenditure growth momentum will sustain, with only a minor blip, if at all,” he added.

Jansen said India has buffers, but brands will need to time their moves. “India is not fully insulated, but to be honest, the Indian advertising market has the capacity to weather external pressures from the war. It’s all about the right mix and the right timing,” she said. “Contributors to this are the resilient local consumption and a strong move to digital channels. Furthermore, the festive demand and performance-focused spends in quick commerce and creator content help brands maintain forward progress.”