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2020 adex to shrink by 14-18% to Rs 58,000 crore, forecasts Madison in its mid-year review

Adex in the second half of the year to grow between Rs 34,300 and Rs 36,600 crore, up 60-72% from Rs 21,298 crore in H1

Madison Media has predicted that Covid-19 will bring down the overall Indian adex in 2020 to Rs 55,000-58,000 crore, down 14-18% from Rs 67,603 crore in 2019. The 2020 adex will be somewhere between 2017 and 2018 levels.

In H1 2020, adex was only Rs 21,298 crore, a drop of 39% over H1 2019 or Rs 13,812 crore in absolute terms.

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Adex is likely to recover in H2 20 and grow at a dramatic rate of 60% to 72% of the collapsed H1, or grow anywhere between 6% to 13% versus H2 19 on the back of the festival season, which Advertisers are sure to take advantage of, after a lean H1, Madison said in its forecast for the full year.

In H2, the adex will grow between Rs 34,300 to Rs 36,600 crore.

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Madison mid-year review highlighted that TV and Digital showed early signs of getting back to normalcy and should get back in full form by September or October, aided by the launch of IPL, Bigg Boss and KBC. “H2 Adex will primarily depend on Demand coming back in markets which will depend on sentiment and consumers’ outlook of the immediate future, which in turn will depend on when Govt and private offices are allowed to open and work on regular basis,” it said.

 

Yr 2019

H1 2020

H1'2020

H2’20 vs H2’19

H2’20 In Crore

H2’20 vs H1’20

Yr 2020

 

Rs Crore

Rs Crore

% De-growth

Projected Growth Range

Range

Proj Growth Range

Projected Growth Range

TV

25291

8084

-43%

16 to 18%

12900 – 14200

60 – 75%

- 12 to - 17%

Digital

15467

6472

-7%

28 to 38%

10800 – 11800

68 – 82%

12 to 18%

Press

20045

5237

-51%

- 8 to - 19%

7500 – 8600

45 – 65%

- 31 to - 36%

Radio

2260

569

-52%

-6 to - 27%

775 – 1000

38 – 78%

- 30 to - 40%

Cinema

1045

176

-52%

-34 to – 64%

240 – 450

38 – 160%

- 40 to -60%

OOH

3495

761

-55%

-16 to – 45 %

950 – 1500

30 – 100%

- 35 to - 50%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL

67603

21298

-39%

6 to 13%

34300 – 36600

60 – 72%

- 14 to - 18%

Sam Balsara

Sam Balsara, Chairman, Madison World, said, “We are bullish in our forecast for H2 2020. We believe Advertisers will return to Adex in full form by Q4 to take advantage of the festive Season. Enlightened advertisers know that they cannot risk being off Advertising for risk of losing Market Share, since Share lost is expensive to regain. Media owners are well advised to be nimble and flexible with existing Advertisers and spare no effort in helping Local and Regional brands become National Brands and help hitherto unadvertised Brands taste the power of Advertising.”

Figures at a glance:

Indian Advertising Market in Jan - June in Last 3 Years

 

H1'18

H1'19

H1'20

Growth %

Medium

In Rs Crore

% Share

In Rs Crore

% Share

In Rs Crore

% Share

2020/19

TV

11890

41%

14199

40%

8084

38%

-43%

Print

9089

31%

10697

30%

5237

25%

-51%

Radio

1002

3%

1182

3%

569

3%

-52%

Cinema

282

1%

366

1%

176

1%

-52%

Outdoor

1616

6%

1706

5%

761

4%

-55%

Total Traditional

23879

82%

28150

80%

14826

70%

-47%

Digital

5384

18%

6960

20%

6472

30%

-7%

Total

29263

 

35110

 

21298

 

-39%

Impact of Covid On Indian Adex in Q2
 

Indian Advertising Market in AMJ in Last 3 Years

 

AMJ'18

AMJ'19

AMJ'20

Growth %

Medium

In Rs Crore

% Share

In Rs Crore

% Share

In Rs Crore

% Share

2020/19

TV

6275

42%

8815

46%

3423

51%

-61%

Print

4934

33%

5830

30%

1217

18%

-79%

Radio

529

4%

566

3%

71

1%

-87%

Cinema

137

1%

157

1%

0

0%

-100%

Outdoor

803

5%

844

4%

8

0%

-99%

Total Traditional

12678

84%

16212

84%

4719

70%

-71%

Digital

2341

16%

3093

16%

2005

30%

-35%

Total

15019

 

19305

 

6724

 

-65%

Info@BestMediaInfo.com

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