Three switches that decide if festive AdEx beats the 10–12% forecast

New Delhi: India’s festive AdEx has turned into a live three-switch test. If GST 2.0 cuts keep flowing through to retail prices, if auto inventory converts into deliveries through Dhanteras, and if e-commerce sustains conversion at scale, the market can push beyond the widely cited 10–12% range. 

If any dial slips, spends settle at the top of guidance amid a compressed campaign window, premium inventory inflation, uneven rural demand and the vacuum created by the real-money gaming ban.

Can these switches lift the full-year AdEx above projections?

There is upside on the table, but execution decides it. “My base case is the upper end of 10–12%, with upside if autos and electronics sustain momentum into November,” said Yasin Hamidani, Director at Media Care Brand Solutions. 

He flagged the RMG blackout, pockets of weak monsoon sentiment and post-Diwali rate discipline as caps on the surge. “By easing sticker shock across autos, electronics and parts of FMCG, GST rationalisation is a real catalyst. If price pass-through holds through October and November, we could stretch beyond the roughly 1.64 lakh crore full-year run-rate some forecasts peg. The catalyst is real; execution at retail and on inventory will decide how much converts into media spending,” Hamidani added.

“This season is marked by optimism with AdEx expected to grow 10–12%, a reflection of steady market confidence,” said Yatin Balyan, Managing Partner – Investments, Omnicom Media Group India. “Brands that can meaningfully translate engagement into measurable business outcomes will lead the way. A full-funnel strategy anchored in insight, precision and cultural relevance will convert festive connection into lasting impact.”

He added that GST rate cuts put more spending power into consumers’ hands now, but the larger AdEx uplift will emerge gradually as sentiment holds.

“The surge has given advertisers confidence that higher spends will convert into measurable returns, prompting many to deploy incremental budgets. Surpassing the 1.60 lakh crore AdEx mark is plausible if momentum holds, but the extent depends on whether demand sustains through the festive cycle and whether brands reinvest the margin gains rather than bank them,” said Vishal Dalal, Co-founder and Director at Excellent Publicity.

Switch one: GST 2.0 pass-through

“The GST cuts came at exactly the right time. By lowering rates on small cars, two-wheelers, ACs, TVs and cement, the government effectively made big-ticket buys 8–10% cheaper. That’s why we saw double-digit jumps in vehicle sales during Navratri. If this holds into Diwali, brands in autos, durables and even housing-linked categories will step up advertising, adding thousands of crores of incremental spends on top of the industry baseline,” said Ali Zaidi, Senior VP-Media at Tonic Worldwide.

Balyan positioned GST as a longer arc for AdEx: “Rate reductions will have an impact on AdEx growth in the long run. The true impact is likely to emerge gradually when strong consumer sentiment and sustained market growth align.”

Switch two: Auto momentum into deliveries

“If supply unlocks meet GST-led price resets and easy credit, auto launches plus price cuts can carry the upside,” Hamidani said.

Balyan added that even without a World Cup-scale tentpole, the Asia Cup and bilateral cricket, coupled with festive tailwinds in automobiles and handsets, will keep attention high enough for full-funnel plans to perform.

Switch three: E-commerce conversion, not just traffic

“We’re already seeing strong signals. Auto sales hit record highs in September, e-commerce volumes are 21% higher year-on-year in the opening week, and real estate values in top cities are up 14% even with fewer units sold. If these sectors keep firing, AdEx can definitely cross 12%,” said Zaidi.

First-week e-commerce GMV was around 60,000 crore, but platforms are spending more surgically via co-op budgets, retail media and biddable performance rather than one-for-one with volume. “Platforms are spending, but not necessarily plus-21 one-for-one. What I’m seeing is a smarter mix: heavier performance budgets, retail media, co-op with partner brands, and last-mile quick-commerce pushes,” Hamidani noted.

“We chose to go with lower-funnel campaigns on biddable platforms so that the boost in prices helps increase sales directly rather than awareness costs,” said Shradha Agarwal, Co-founder and Global CEO at Grapes Worldwide, explaining how clients have reallocated festive budgets.

Balyan expects healthy investments tied to key retail moments through the quarter, with e-commerce sustaining growth as digital retail matures.

Headwinds that can cap the upside

“Short term, yes. RMG underwrote sizeable digital bursts the last few seasons; with a statutory ban, that faucet turns off. Some of that spend will migrate to non-RMG gaming, e-commerce and fintech, but the net gap during peak weeks is real,” said Hamidani.

“Yes, in the short term,” Zaidi agreed. “RMG was among the top five digital spenders, so pulling it out right before the festive cycle takes away some easy growth. But the overall AdEx engine is broad this year. E-commerce is up more than 20 percent in orders, BFSI is aggressive on credit and EMIs, and autos and durables are in overdrive post-GST, so other categories are stepping in fast enough to keep the growth story intact.”

“The ban will have an impact at an annualised level, but its effect on festive AdEx from October to December is likely to be limited,” Balyan said, pointing to the absence of a World Cup-scale tentpole during this phase.

“It is more of a drag than a derailment. E-commerce, consumer tech, fintech and OTT will absorb much of the freed inventory, albeit not at RMG scale,” Dalal said.

Dalal also warned that a shorter festive calendar compresses campaigns and caps the spend window. Premium festive pricing can crowd out smaller advertisers.
Muted rural pockets and borrowing costs may keep FMCG and mass advertisers cautious, Zaidi said, explaining why many forecasts remain anchored at 10–12%.

Where the money is moving

Budgets are following performance and measurable outcomes. Balyan expects e-commerce, automobiles, mobile handsets, BFSI and retail to drive the bulk of growth, provided brands tie engagement to outcomes with full-funnel plans.

Hamidani’s “multi-engine mix” added real estate, jewellery and quick commerce, with BFSI unlocking EMI-led acquisition.

Dalal sees a tactical tilt to digital and regional scale, from influencer programmes and connected TV to programmatic video and live commerce, as advertisers chase ROI rather than sheer reach. Platforms like Amazon, Flipkart and Myntra are running large multi-channel pushes, while partner brands in smartphones, electronics and fashion lean into co-branded launches and performance-heavy activations.

The call for marketers

Treat the next four weeks as a rolling stress test of the three switches. Keep GST savings visible on the shelf and online. Protect auto delivery pipelines beyond Dhanteras. Fund e-commerce where conversion is provable and layer brand weight only where premium inventory still clears ROI. If all three dials stay green, festive AdEx can stretch past the band and nudge the full-year tally beyond projections. If one turns amber, expect a strong season that still lands at the top of guidance.