India's festive adex set to rise 10–12% in 2025

New Delhi: India’s festive-season advertising spends for 2025 are poised for a 10–12% uptick over last year, driven by digital adoption, new launches and heightened consumer confidence, even as a shorter festive window and macro headwinds warrant caution.

Festive adex growth pegged at 10–12%, but shorter window demands precision

Roopali Sharma, President – North & East at Havas Media, predicted a 10–12% growth over last year’s festive AdEx. She said, “A stronger macroeconomic outlook, increased consumer sentiment, and a more synchronised festival calendar that aligns with key sales periods” have buoyed advertiser confidence.

She added, “Elections in early 2024 led to some spillover spending into 2025, further boosting advertiser confidence. The continued push towards digital transformation, deeper rural penetration, and the growing role of vernacular content are also pivotal.”

Ratnakar Bharti, VP – Media at MudraMax, concurred, estimating “a moderate yet stable growth of around 10–12% over 2024,” and cited “a broader digital-first user base,” “major launches across electronics and automotive categories,” and “festive-centric campaigns timed closely with major sporting events” as key growth drivers.

Anil Pandit, Managing Partner at Publicis Media India, sees an overall outlook “notably stronger than last year,” driven by “an upswing in consumer sentiment, increased brand activity around major events, and a robust push toward digital platforms.” 

He added that brands are capitalising on heightened festive retail and the broader reach of digital and connected TV, especially as consumer confidence rebounds.

Anindya Ray, Executive VP at Lodestar UM, noted that “low retail inflation coupled with a favourable monsoon augurs well,” but cautioned that “this year’s festive spell will be a shorter one of 45 days, with Diwali coming on 20th/21st October. The shorter runway means shorter and more tactical bursts of media activities.”

Similarly, Bharti warned that “a delayed and uneven monsoon that could dampen rural spending,” “persistent inflation that may strain discretionary budgets,” and “rising media costs due to increased demand for premium inventory” pose significant dampeners. 

Even Pandit acknowledged that “persistent inflation in certain categories, funding uncertainties for startups, and shifting rural demand” will require advertisers to calibrate their strategies in a dynamic yet nuanced marketplace.

Core categories continue to dominate ad spend

Core verticals such as e-commerce, automotive, FMCG, and electronics continue to command the lion’s share of the festive season AdEx, while growth-oriented sectors and more cautious segments chart divergent paths.

Bharti of MudraMax highlighted an increase in ad budgets from core verticals like e-commerce, FMCG, and consumer electronics, largely driven by new product cycles, aggressive festive bundling, and competitive market share battles. 

He added that the automobile sector, particularly EVs and compact SUVs, is poised for activity with attractive exchange schemes and festive financing offers.

Lodestar UM’s Ray emphasised that while there may not be many new launches, this is a crucial period to liquidate inventory and prepare for 2026. “Auto categories across 4W/2W, ICE & EVs will try to make the most of this festive season,” he added.

Fintech, real estate, and travel join the spending surge

Beyond these pillars, Bharti highlighted strong momentum in fintech and banking around seasonal credit and UPI campaigns, residential real estate in Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities, and travel and hospitality tied to festive and winter holiday bookings.

Havas Media’s Sharma echoed the focus on established categories while pointing to renewed auto optimism. “Core sectors like e-commerce, automotive, and electronics have shown clear intent to ramp up festive budgets this year,” she noted. 

According to Sharma, the two-wheeler and four-wheeler segments have rebounded, buoyed by fresh EV launches and model facelifts, and FMCG continues its steady climb, especially in premium packaged foods and personal care. 

She also sees greater ad spend from travel companies, BFSI players and real-estate developers, capitalising on elevated festive buying sentiment.

Ray added, “FMCG corners 25% to 30% of the overall festive spends in any case and hence will be the virtual weather cock.”

E-commerce and quick commerce lead digital momentum

Lodestar UM’s Ray underscored e-commerce’s enduring dominance: “E-com and Quick Com will be high on investments this festive season.” 

Even Sharma said that e-commerce players are front-loading budgets to build momentum early, especially with newer platforms and quick commerce expanding aggressively.

Pandit of Publicis Media India broadened the lens to include post-pandemic recovery in several verticals. “Brands in e-commerce, auto, FMCG, electronics and consumer durables are ramping up their advertising investments, buoyed by heightened consumer demand, new launches and peak-time sales,” he observed. 

He pointed out that travel, hospitality, fintech, BFSI and large-format retail are also making significant ad pushes, reflecting rising disposable incomes in urban and semi-urban India.

Jewellery, cement, alcohol, betting also eye visibility

Ray further identified jewellery, paint, cement and home-improvement products as significant spenders, alongside policy-sensitive categories such as alcoholic beverages, pan masala, and even betting, provided there are no abrupt regulatory changes. 

He added that travel, both domestic and international, is expected to see high visibility as outbound tourism booms.

He said, “Both domestic and international airlines will target high visibility this festive season. India’s outbound travel is booming, and while passport holders still account for less than 10% of our population, most will be planning international travel for business, leisure, education and visits to family & friends.” 

Startups, MSMEs, and crypto remain cautious

At the same time, Pandit noted that print-heavy sectors, hyperlocal-focused brands and many startups and MSMEs are exercising caution—“scaling back spends or concentrating them on digital channels.” Even Bharti cautioned that edtech is “stabilising post COVID-boom,” and crypto and Web3 remain muted due to “continued regulatory ambiguity.”

With Diwali falling on October 20–21 and a compressed 45-day campaign window, advertisers must balance optimism with tactical precision. While momentum-driven verticals continue to fuel overall growth, the mix of conservative and aggressive spending underscores a nuanced and dynamic festive-season advertising landscape for 2025.

Digital to lead, but not at the cost of traditional media

Media planners expect digital to lead the growth curve, but not at the cost of traditional channels. From short-form video and programmatic commerce to television sports and regional print supplements, brands are adopting an increasingly balanced, multimedia approach to festive spending.

“Digital is expected to see the highest growth, between 15–18%, driven by short-form video, programmatic, and influencer commerce,” said Bharti of MudraMax.

Havas Media’s Sharma projected even sharper gains for digital. “We anticipate digital ad spends to grow by over 20%, especially across social, video, and retail media platforms,” she said. 

TV reclaims reach through sports and soaps

However, Bharti stressed that traditional media is evolving, not fading. “TV remains resilient, with festive programming and live sports boosting its share, expecting a 7–8% YoY increase,” he noted.

Even Sharma noted, “TV continues to hold its ground, particularly for high-impact, short-window festive campaigns where reach is paramount.” 

Ray of Lodestar UM reiterated the continued relevance of linear television, stating, “Linear TV is holding on to its growth and will still be sought after to deliver absolute reach, riding more on sports like Cricket, Pro Kabaddi League, news, and habitual advertising on soaps and serials.” 

He added that this trend is being driven by FMCG and infrastructure categories such as paints, cement, and furniture.

Sharma highlighted the rising value of regional and general entertainment channels (GECs), which are “commanding a premium during key tentpole events.”

Print finds relevance in Tier-2 and Tier-3 India

Bharti added that print is “staging a targeted comeback, particularly in regional markets and festive supplements,” with projected growth between 4–6%. 

Print, according to Sharma, is regaining significance in tier 2 and 3 markets, especially among high-trust sectors. “Real estate, BFSI, and jewellery are leveraging print effectively,” she said. 

Ray also credited print with regaining momentum, especially among categories like mobile, real estate, and infrastructure. “Print is the most trusted medium and has regained its mojo,” he said.

OOH gets a boost via DOOH and transit innovation

Ray went to place special emphasis on OOH media, calling it a vital tool to deliver both “visibility and experience.”

Out-of-home (OOH), powered by digital out-of-home (DOOH) and metro innovations, is expected to grow by 8–10% this festive season, according to Bharti.

Sharma also underlined OOH’s recovery, stating that it has “bounced back to near pre-COVID levels, with innovations in transit media and DOOH making it a strong complement to digital.”

“Traditional media is being selectively integrated into omnichannel strategies to reinforce reach and trust,” Bharti affirmed.