E-retail AdEx to surge 20–30% this festive season with Q-commerce driving momentum

New Delhi: E-retail platforms are expected to see a 20–30% rise in ad spends this festive season compared to 2024.  While e-commerce will remain the volume driver, the industry leaders agree that q-commerce has become the breakout story of 2025, powered by instant gifting, impulse consumption and hyperlocal convenience.

“If 2024 was about stabilisation, 2025 is about acceleration,” said Rupali Chavan, SVP & Head of Business, Mudramax. 

She pointed out that commerce media already contributes nearly a quarter of digital AdEx, with 40–50% of festive budgets shifting away from social and OTT into retail media ecosystems. 

“Within that, q-commerce is emerging as a tactical choice for FMCG, beverages and beauty, while e-commerce remains the scale driver for electronics, appliances and fashion,” she said.

Chavan stressed that festive visibility is less about “one big splash” and more about building consistency. 

“Consumers move seamlessly between TV, mobile, social feeds and commerce platforms, so the brand narrative has to travel with them. The focus is on breaking the festive clutter with high-impact moments while sustaining recall through always-on visibility,” she said.

“By spreading presence across mass media and retail media, the brand stays top-of-mind without being overly dependent on a single premium slot,” she added.

Jewellery and premium gifting, though smaller in scale, are also expected to see sharper, high-value spends.

Anshul Garg, Managing Partner, Publicis Commerce, Publicis Groupe India, projected commerce-led AdEx to rise 25–30% above business-as-usual levels, with q-commerce leading CPG spends. He noted that spiralling homepage costs are pushing brands towards sharper search optimisation, sponsored listings and programmatic banners. “The real unlock lies in early priming of consumers,” Garg said. “Consistent top- and mid-funnel visibility weeks before Diwali ensures brands remain top-of-mind when the buying frenzy peaks.”

Marketplaces are seeing similar shifts. Achint Setia, CEO, Snapdeal, said festive advertising is becoming increasingly sophisticated, with shoppable videos, sponsored listings and programmatic banners helping brands capture purchase intent at the point of transaction. With more than 80% of Snapdeal’s orders coming from non-metro cities, he underlined the growing role of vernacular creatives and cultural cues. “Bharat wants affordability and relatability,” he said.

“This year, the anticipated GST rate cuts are likely to give an additional push to festive shopping,” Setia added. “Combined with heightened consumer sentiment, this will make e-commerce advertising an even more strategic lever for brands to drive discovery, conversions and market share gains.”

But Setia also highlighted that festive success requires careful preparation. “Advertisers need to ensure campaigns are backed by strong inventory alignment, precise audience segmentation, and a narrative that blends festive emotions with affordability. Planning early, while staying agile during the peak shopping weeks, is key,” he said.

Chavan agreed, noting that regionalisation is now core to festive campaigns. “Vernacular creatives, regional offers, and pin-code targeting are central. On q-commerce especially, the ability to push the right SKU mix in the right neighbourhood—say festive snacks in Tier 2 cities—helps brands optimise both spend and sales,” she said.

Medhavi Singh, Country Head, Criteo India, expects 2025 to build on last year’s 14% rise in online sales and 42% surge in Diwali traffic. “Advertisers are recalibrating their media mix to balance reach and precision,” she said, citing heavier investments in sponsored listings, category-first placements and hyperlocal targeting.

Her takeaway: “For advertisers, the festive opportunity is no longer about one-off campaigns. It requires a full-funnel commerce media strategy blending performance and brand building across e-commerce, q-commerce and digital touchpoints.”

But Somdutta Singh, Founder and CEO, Assiduus Global, flagged structural hurdles. “Rising ad fees on q-commerce platforms are putting pressure on budgets. Homepage slots and premium banners are crowded and expensive, so brands need to avoid overpaying for vanity placements,” she warned. “Demand is starting earlier each year, so campaigns must be paced carefully to avoid exhausting budgets too soon. Measurement is also tricky during mega sales, but keeping clean baselines and testing in holdout regions remains the most reliable way to assess true incrementality.”

Yasin Hamidani, Director, Media Care Brand Solutions, forecasts a 20–25% AdEx rise this season, led by urban q-commerce traction and aggressive discounts. “Electronics, FMCG and beauty will dominate spends, but categories like home décor, fashion, small appliances and even auto accessories are scaling visibility,” he said.

Hamidani warned that with multiple brands chasing the same eyeballs, clutter and ROI pressures are intensifying. “Supply chain preparedness and inventory alignment with media plans also become vital. Advertising without fulfilment readiness leads to wasted spending. Brands must balance pan-India messaging with regional resonance while tracking platform data in real time to optimise campaigns,” he said.

At a macro level, Singh of Assiduus Global, pointed to Redseer’s projection of festive e-commerce GMV crossing Rs 1.15 lakh crore in 2025, up 20–25% over last year, with shipments rising 27%. “Festive AdEx is no longer just about electronics. Q-commerce baskets, including groceries, essentials and daily-use categories, are reshaping budgets,” she said.

Somdutta highlighted that sponsored product ads now account for more than half of retail media spend, underscoring the shift from costly homepage banners to precision formats. “Brands are leaning into placements that capture high-intent customers at the point of purchase, rather than overspending on headline banners. Visibility today comes from a smarter mix of search and category inventory, not just from paying top dollar for homepage real estate,” she explained.

She added that brands are locking priority windows earlier to avoid peak price surges. “Planning early, balancing placements and measuring carefully are non-negotiable,” she advised.

Finally, consumer behaviour is magnifying these trends. Vaishal Dalal, Co-founder & Director, Excellent Publicity, noted that delivery app inventories alone can cost 40–50% more during Diwali as brands compete for attention. “An in-app banner or a 10-minute delivery promise can turn convenience into conversion,” he said. He added that influencer-led campaigns, vernacular storytelling, live shopping and AI-driven personalisation are becoming critical levers to drive festive ROI.

Hamidani concluded with a cautionary note: “Ultimately, the winners this festive season will be those who combine creativity, commerce, precision and operational agility seamlessly.”