AI Overviews are draining publisher revenue while India still watches

New Delhi: Google’s AI Overviews may be its boldest product innovation yet, but it’s also triggering one of the most disruptive shifts in the history of digital publishing. By serving AI-generated summaries directly at the top of search results, often based on publisher content, Google has quietly short-circuited the traditional link between questions and clicks.

Discovery, once the backbone of digital journalism, is being displaced by instant answers.

A senior executive at a leading Indian media group calls it a ‘structural collapse’. “This is not anecdotal; it’s happening globally,” the executive said. “Evergreen content that once drew reliable, long-tail traffic is now being swallowed by AI summaries.”

According to him, two key shifts are driving the change:

1. Google’s narrowing definition of news, which now prioritises breaking headlines over explanatory content like “14th Amendment of the Indian Constitution.”

2. The rise of answer engines like ChatGPT and Gemini, which are rapidly replacing search journeys with destination summaries.

“Earlier, users at least clicked on source links. Now, only one in every 1,500 is clicked,” the executive noted. “AI is not just the destination; it’s the detour, with no exit to the source.”

He added, “Many publishers create content aimed at trending keywords surfaced by Google. This model is particularly vulnerable. Meanwhile, AI companies like OpenAI have already tied up with global wire services. Soon, agencies like PTI, ANI, AP and AFP will follow. AI engines can generate summaries or stories using wire feeds. That reduces dependency on original publishers. Since subscribing to wires is cheap for them, it puts pressure on long-form journalism too.”

India lags as global pushback builds

In Europe, a coalition of independent publishers has filed a formal antitrust complaint against Google with the European Commission, accusing Google’s AI Overviews of siphoning off traffic and revenue.

In India, however, no such complaint has been filed with the Competition Commission of India (CCI).

“While there is an ongoing CCI case on how digital platforms use publisher content, progress is slow,” said Abhishek Karnani, Director, The Free Press Journal. “Our ecosystem is fragmented. Media houses vary widely in size, digital maturity, and strategic approach. That makes collective action difficult.”

The Digital News Publishers Association (DNPA) recently voiced concerns about tools like ChatGPT and Gemini distorting Indian narratives by amplifying foreign biases. But so far, it has remained silent on the impact of Google’s AI Overviews. BestMediaInfo.com reached out for comment but received no response by the time of publishing.

Google Zero: A business collapse in slow motion

“This isn’t just a tech disruption; it’s a slow-motion business collapse,” said Sunny Sen, founder of TSB Media Venture. “We’ve entered the ‘Google Zero’ phase.”

Coined by The Verge’s Nilay Patel, “Google Zero” describes a tipping point where search no longer drives traffic to external sites. For years, small publishers have faced this reality. Now, even India’s largest newsrooms are feeling the heat.

Sen breaks it down: “No clicks means no pageviews, no impressions, no CPMs. That’s the entire revenue loop destroyed.”

He recalled, “Searching for ‘top luxury cars’ once led to ‘Autocar’ or ‘Times of India’. Now, Gemini gives a 2-line answer, and the user moves on. That’s the death of discovery.”

Toward a new playbook: From clicks to communities

According to Sen, the future lies in “becoming a destination”, not a discovery. “Legacy brands like ‘The Hindu’ and ‘Dainik Bhaskar’ are already investing in apps, subscriptions, and direct user platforms,” he said.

“Think like FMCG giants,” he added. “Brands like Lux know their ideal customer. Newsrooms rarely define an ICP (Ideal Customer Profile). But when you do, you create loyal communities. That’s where AI becomes a growth engine, not a competitor.”

Even the senior media executive agrees: “Random traffic chasing is dead. Build engaged, direct audiences. Quality trumps quantity.”

A new front opens: Infrastructure control

After years of fighting a losing battle against AI crawlers, publishers may finally have a weapon. Cloudflare’s July 1 update gives publishers control to “block, monitor, or monetise AI access” at the infrastructure level.

“Earlier, blocking one bot just led to ten more. Now, we finally have real control,” said the executive. “AI tools have already scraped our best explanatory content. That’s now being regurgitated without attribution. It’s a direct threat to long-form journalism.”

However, Karnani warns of overcorrection: “Yes, publishers can block crawlers, but that risks visibility. The key is a balanced strategy: share selectively, protect premium content, and explore licensing frameworks.”

Strategic integration, not resistance

Shailley Singh, COO of IAB Tech Lab, advocates for proactive engagement rather than blanket resistance.

He outlines a three-pronged strategy for navigating the AI-driven landscape:

• Create content scarcity by controlling bot access through tools like robots.txt and web application firewalls (WAFs);

• Enable discoverability for large language models (LLMs) by offering structured metadata and AI-friendly formats such as LLMs.txt;

• Monetise content through cost-per-crawl (CPCr) APIs or by establishing direct API-based integrations with LLM platforms.

Meanwhile, Google has rolled out ‘Offerwall’, a monetisation feature in Google Ad Manager, responding to publisher backlash over traffic loss. Offerwall allows readers to unlock content by watching a video, completing a survey, or signing up for a newsletter, offering flexibility beyond traditional ads.

It’s a clear signal that Google is listening, but still calling the shots.

The road ahead: Adapt or fade

Despite Google’s repeated assurances that AI Overviews won’t harm traffic, the publisher community remains unconvinced. As instant answers replace page visits, trust and revenue are both at risk.

“This is a defining moment,” Sen said. “You can’t outrun AI. But you can outsmart it by becoming indispensable to a clearly defined audience.”

Publishers must now choose: chase diminishing clicks, or build durable, direct relationships that AI can’t displace.