Meta, Google and Amazon edging toward 60% of global ad market share by 2030

New Delhi: WARC lifts 2025 outlook to 7.4% growth after stronger-than-expected Q2; Meta, Alphabet and Amazon tighten grip on digital advertising

New Delhi: The global advertising market is now expected to grow faster than previously forecast, after social media platforms recorded a sharp second-quarter boost in spending ahead of new US trade tariffs.

According to WARC’s Global Ad Forecast Q3 2025 update, global ad spend is on track to rise 7.4% this year to $1.17 trillion, an upgrade of 1.2 percentage points from its June estimate.

Growth is set to accelerate further in 2026 to 8.1% ($1.27 trillion) and continue at 7.1% in 2027, taking the market to $1.36 trillion, double its pandemic-hit size in 2020.

“Global ad spend is growing rapidly, with digital-first platforms capturing almost all the new money,” said James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting at WARC. “Despite economic headwinds, brands are doubling down on Meta, Alphabet and Amazon, while emerging players like TikTok are growing fast but from smaller bases.”

Nine in ten new ad dollars this year are flowing to online-only platforms, with social media alone capturing 40.6% of growth, followed by non-retail search (22.2%) and retail media (21.5%).

Meta, Alphabet and Amazon are forecast to control 55.8% of global ad spend outside China in 2025, equivalent to $524.4 billion. Their share is projected to rise to 56.2% by 2026, and could exceed 60% by 2030.

Social media ad spend will rise 14.9% in 2025 to $306.4 billion, equal to more than a quarter of all global spend. Meta alone accounts for $184.1 billion (60.1% of social media spend), though TikTok is growing fastest, with spend expected to average 21.6% annually through 2027.

Search advertising is projected at $253.2 billion this year, dominated by Google with an 86% share.

Retail media will reach $175 billion in 2025, with Amazon’s $62 billion accounting for over a third.

The upgrade follows a stronger-than-expected second quarter in 2025, when pure-play internet ad spend rose 14% to $205.1 billion, driven by retailers and tech brands front-loading budgets before US tariffs took effect on “Freedom Day.”

Retailers boosted spend sharply on Instagram (+18.8%) and TikTok (+56.8%), accounting for nearly a quarter of TikTok’s growth.

Tech and electronics brands added more than $1 billion in spend on Facebook, and close to $500 million each on Instagram and TikTok.

The social sector overall grew 20.2% in Q2, well above the 12.4% forecast, contributing an additional $4.9 billion.

Traditional channels such as print and broadcast TV continue to lose share, while YouTube ad spend is expected to grow 85% in real terms by 2027. 

Taken together, the “triopoly” of Meta, Alphabet and Amazon is forecast to record real growth of nearly 90% between 2020 and 2027, almost five times faster than all other media owners combined.