Amongst the top 10 ad markets of the world, India is leading the charts with an expected ad revenue growth of 12% at $17.3 billion, as per GroupM’s This Year Next Year 2023 Global Mid-Year Forecast.
Notably, GroupM’s December forecast for the Indian market had pegged the same to be 16.8%, which has now been trimmed down to 12%, owing to changes in the macroeconomic environment.
The other top ad markets of the world including China, Brazil, Germany, US, Canada, Japan, UK, France and Australia are expected to register 7.9%, 6.6%, 6%, 5.1%, 5%, 4.8%, 4.8%, 4.2% and 0.2% ad revenue growth, respectively.
“We expect global advertising revenue to grow by 5.9% (excluding US Political advertising) in 2023 and 6.0% in 2024,” the report said.
Moreover, the global and regional ad growth of the APAC region in 2023 is pegged to be at 6.6%, as the ad world globally is still dealing with rising inflation and adjustments to consumer behaviours brought on by the pandemic and expects to see a return to some kind of normalcy in terms of advertising revenue growth.
The report also touches upon five key themes for the year, which include- Regulation, Connected TV, Artificial Intelligence, Retail Media and New Business Growth.
It states that regulation tied to data privacy, national security, competition and freedom of speech is impacting big technology and advertising platforms.
The CTV adoption among both- consumers and advertisers, as per the report, is growing rapidly, adding 10.4% in ad revenue between 2023 and 2028 on a compound annual basis.
Additionally, the report also points out that the India Sports Spends- Sponsorship Media in 2022 stood at $1799 million, up from 2021’s $1288 million, registering a 49% YoY growth.
On the other hand, the report also enlists that Retail Media is the third-fastest growing advertising channel in 2023 (behind digital OOH and CTV) and it will grow by 9.9% to reach $125.7 billion in 2023, and is forecast to exceed TV revenue (including CTV) in 2028.
Further, it also mentions that AI is likely to inform or touch in some way, at least half of all advertising revenue by the end of this year and suggested that it therefore should be used conscientiously and with appropriate safety measures in place.
On a channel basis, the report states that apart from Retail Media, media vehicles such as OOH will grow by 12.7%, Digital by 8.4% and Audio by 0.3%, while Television and Print will see a decline of 1.2% and 4.8%, respectively.
Moreover, the report also highlights that the top 25 global ad sellers accounted for 75.3% of total 2023 ad revenue, up from 74.0% in 2021.
“We are at an inflection point where the secular drivers of advertising growth above and beyond GDP growth are maturing, the pandemic upheaval is receding and the dynamic rise of digital advertising has slowed. This is the basis of our underlying forecast of mid-single-digit advertising growth over the next five years,” the report states.
It further touches upon the fact that the pervasive impact of AI on the world of advertising could change the aforementioned views as advertisers, in such an environment, will be well-served by having proactive guidelines and the right partners to navigate these waters so that choices in budget allocation and the use of AI are made intentionally with the long-term health of the business in mind.
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