Here is what to expect if Google sells Chrome

New Delhi: When asked what would happen if Google sold Chrome, ChatGPT explained that this move would disrupt Google's ecosystem, weaken its market position, and lower its valuation. 

“While the browser market might see more competition and innovation, users could face service disruptions or new paid features. The move would set a precedent for stricter antitrust oversight but pose challenges like finding a suitable buyer and avoiding another monopoly, reshaping Google’s dominance and the browser landscape,” it added.

Last week, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) proposed that Google divest its Chrome browser to curb its alleged monopoly in internet search, following an August ruling declaring its practices monopolistic. Proposed measures include selling Chrome, barring Google from re-entering the browser market for five years, potentially divesting Android, banning default search deals with companies like Apple, and requiring Google to share search data with competitors to foster competition.

BestMediaInfo.com engaged with industry experts to explore the potential impact of a Chrome sale on the entire digital ecosystem.

Reports reveal that Google pays substantial sums to remain the default search engine on major web browsers and devices. In 2022, Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, paid Apple $20 billion to secure its position as the default search engine on Safari across iPhone, iPad, and Mac. Similarly, Google pays Mozilla between $400 million and $450 million annually to retain its default status on the Firefox browser. These payments are a crucial part of Google’s strategy to maintain its dominance in the search market, as default positioning drives significant user traffic, fueling its advertising revenue.

Adityan Kayalakal, Head of Marketing and founding team member of Veera (an Indian browser), commented, “Google thus far was able to look at browsing and search almost as one function. By owning all key steps to access and discovery, they had people just Googling to get what they wanted on the internet without really thinking, is it search or Chrome? This is also a huge benefit to Google. Because Google Search was the default search engine on Google Chrome, the largest and most used Internet browser in the world. With every other major player, they had to work out major monies for the same privilege—over $15 billion for Safari on Apple and almost $0.5 billion for Firefox. 

That might no longer be the case if Chrome is owned by a third party since it would mean Google would need to pay the new owner of Chrome a yearly fee in the billions to be the default search engine.”

According to Rahul Vengalil, CEO and Co-founder of TGTHR, if Google is forced to sell Chrome, it will likely adopt a similar strategy to ensure Google Search remains the default on most browsers. 

“This will significantly impact their business, as 60–70% of users currently use Chrome. Google will need to find ways to mitigate this impact. While this might not open up the market for other browsers significantly, as users are creatures of habit and Chrome is highly popular, creating a successful browser is challenging. Many brands have tried and failed. Google has the resources to build and maintain a browser, but others may not,” commented Vengalil.

“Chrome also became as ubiquitous as it did, partly thanks to being built into every Android device by default. Moving Chrome out of the Google universe might adversely affect how much Google ensures it is now prioritised on Android devices, which in turn might give challenger browsers such as Brave, Opera, and Veera an opportunity to take market share away from Chrome,”  Kayalakal further said.

Neelesh Pednekar, Co-founder & Head of Digital Media at Social Pill, believes that this could be a watershed moment for browser competition. “Currently, Chrome's dominance has created high barriers to entry. A separation could allow new players to enter the market with innovative features, give existing browsers like Firefox and Safari more room to grow, and create opportunities for specialised browsers focused on privacy or specific use cases,” he said.  

Pednekar added that it could also foster more innovation in browser technology and lead to better privacy options for users. “The key here is that competition often drives innovation. We might see a renaissance in browser development, with new players bringing fresh perspectives to how we interact with the web.”

Jameela Kapasi, Founder, Digitotal Media Agency, shared with BestMediaInfo.com that “If the US Department of Justice forces Google to sell Chrome, it could destabilise its integrated ecosystem, significantly impacting the user experience and developer reliance. This move might reduce Google’s search dominance but could also fragment the browser market. Such changes may inadvertently hinder innovation and raise operational challenges for users and businesses.”

However, Ajay Verma, Managing Partner, 0101.Today, doesn’t see a major change in the browser market if Google has to sell Chrome. He explained, “In a scenario where this ruling gets implemented, the question to ask is who has the might to buy a browser that is used by 2/3 of the world's internet population. The current PE funds might sell it to themselves, which may not disrupt the market from the user perspective.”

In another development, OpenAI, the company behind the widely popular AI chatbot ChatGPT, is reportedly contemplating entering the web browser market, directly challenging Google's long-standing dominance in both search and browsing. According to reports, OpenAI has been in discussions with several app and website developers, including Conde Nast, Redfin, Eventbrite, and Priceline, about enhancing search features with its AI capabilities.

As per Statista data, in 2023, Google's search segment generated $175 billion in ad revenue, which is the majority of its advertising revenue. Search ads are highly lucrative for Google because they target users actively searching for information, products, or services, leading to higher engagement and conversion rates. Google's dominance in the search engine market (with a global market share of over 90%) ensures a steady flow of traffic, making search ads its most profitable segment.

If Google has to sell Chrome, in the short term, there could be potential disruptions in ad targeting capabilities, adjustments in ad pricing models, recalibration of attribution systems, and changes in audience tracking methodologies, according to Pednekar. 

“However, long-term opportunities might include the emergence of more diverse ad tech solutions, better competition leading to more innovative advertising formats, an increased focus on privacy-first advertising solutions, and new players entering the ad tech space with fresh approaches,” he added. 

Pednekar also highlighted that price dynamics could shift significantly with more competitive pricing models, new bidding mechanisms, different value attribution systems, and more transparent pricing structures. “This change could catalyse a more diverse, competitive, and potentially more efficient digital advertising ecosystem. While there might be short-term disruptions, the long-term effects could lead to more innovation and better options for advertisers and publishers alike,” he commented. 

“Looking ahead, this potential breakup could mark the beginning of a new era in digital advertising. While Google would remain a major player, the ecosystem might become more balanced, with multiple players contributing to innovation and development. This could ultimately benefit advertisers, publishers, and users through increased choice, better privacy options, and more innovative solutions. 

As per Rahul Tekwani, Managing Partner Branding Edge, this could become the industry's next major crisis if it unfolds, as countless workflows, applications, and services depend on Chrome as their foundation. “If Google can no longer sustain Chrome in that role, the entire industry will be forced to adapt and pivot. It will start the new regime of A/B testing on what will work for the industry and what will not and in the whole process some kind of degrowth can be expected in the numbers on how the ad industry will grow,” he said. 

Verma added that the dominance in search coupled with the browser and Android—Google enjoys an unbeatable view of the internet browsing community. This basic ethos is under question. And the current directive is about Chrome, but Android is next.  

"There will be an immediate impact on their search dominance and ad revenues, but it does not stop here; it disrupts their current plans around the development of their AI-led integrations and innovations. Deploying newer products and making them big using their dominant ecosystem will also suffer.”

Other impacts that Google might face, as per Pednekar, are, “Beyond the immediate advertising implications, several critical areas would be affected. User data access would be impacted, as Chrome provides valuable insights into browsing patterns, user preferences, and digital behaviours. Google's ability to implement new web standards and technologies would be limited, affecting its development control. 

The Android-Chrome integration, which currently gives Google a competitive edge, would be disrupted, impacting the mobile ecosystem. Chrome also serves as a crucial testing ground for Google's AI features and innovations, so AI development would be affected. Lastly, the loss of Chrome would reduce Google's touchpoints with users, potentially affecting other services and their overall market presence.”

What happens to Google’s search dominance, only time will tell, but for others, Pednekar suggested that those who can quickly adjust to a more diverse browser and ad tech landscape while maintaining effective digital marketing strategies will be best positioned to succeed in this new environment. “This isn't just about breaking up a tech giant—it's about reshaping the future of how we interact with and advertise on the internet. The ripple effects will likely influence everything from how we browse the web to how digital advertising evolves in the coming years,” Pednekar concluded.