$300-billion connected commerce: BCG flags India’s biggest e-commerce shift yet

New Delhi: India’s e-commerce market is projected to more than double from $120-140 billion now to $280-300 billion by 2030, a new Boston Consulting Group (BCG) report said.

The report, titled $300 Billion Connected Commerce: How Clicks and Bricks Are Defining the Future of India’s E-Commerce, is based on a survey of over 12,000 consumers across urban and rural India, along with industry analysis.

BCG said the next phase of growth will be driven by “connected commerce”, where online and offline retail co-exist through a single consumer journey. Shoppers increasingly move between screens and stores for discovery, comparison and purchase, depending on convenience and trust.

The report noted that e-commerce is still only 7-8 per cent of total consumer spending in India. It added that offline retail remains resilient, growing at an annual rate of 13-14 per cent over the past four years.

BCG said multi-channel behaviour is now the norm. It said five out of 10 offline shoppers still use online platforms to research and gather information before buying.

“Retail in India is becoming structurally multi-channel. Brands that treat online and offline as separate strategies risk falling behind,” said Parul Bajaj, India Leader – Marketing, Sales and Pricing Practice, BCG.

The report said e-commerce comprises e-retail and e-services, estimated at $75-85 billion and $45-55 billion, respectively. Growth is expected to be led by e-services, with a forward CAGR of 20–22 per cent, compared to 16–18 per cent for e-retail.

BCG said around 45 per cent of mobiles and 23 per cent of personal electronic devices are now purchased online. It added that about 20 per cent of beauty and personal care products, and 20 per cent of apparel and footwear, are also purchased online.

Beauty and personal care, and apparel and footwear, are growing faster at around 22 per cent, compared to mobiles at around 11 per cent and personal electronic devices at around 6 per cent.

In e-services, the report said around 30 per cent of travel and hotel bookings and 44 per cent of movies and events are now booked online, with growth running above 40 per cent.

India has nearly 300 million online shoppers today and is projected to reach 440 million by 2030, BCG said.

The report said the next wave of growth will be led by smaller cities and middle-income groups, with around 30 per cent of online shoppers coming from rural India.

Women account for around 45 per cent of digital shoppers, the report said. Nearly two-thirds of women shoppers said they feel safer shopping online, citing privacy, ease of access and the ability to shop independently.

“Platforms and brands must design simpler, safer and more seamless experiences across touchpoints,” said Kanika Sanghi, Partner and Director, BCG.

BCG said formats are also fragmenting rapidly. Category-focused platforms now account for over 60 per cent of online spending, while horizontal marketplaces contribute less than one-third.

Quick commerce has grown at over 100 per cent CAGR, the report said, while social and chat commerce are growing at 40-45 per cent CAGR, especially in Tier 2 and Tier 3 markets. It added that new online shoppers often start with one format, while mature shoppers use five or more formats.

The report said e-commerce has also become a key enabler for businesses. It said the time to reach Rs 100 crore in annual revenue has reduced from around 11 years to about seven years, and brands selling online innovate 1.5–3 times faster.

It added that small businesses, MSMEs, artisans and farmers are benefiting from lower barriers to entry and faster scaling. Nearly 90 per cent of small online sellers reported sales growth, with many expanding employment and reaching national markets at lower cost, the report said.

BCG said sustaining growth will depend on strengthening the wider ecosystem, including digital skills for small sellers, future-ready logistics and last-mile infrastructure, simpler export pathways, and technology-neutral regulation that supports innovation while maintaining trust.