With Iran-Israel conflict easing, Indian adex poised for positive momentum

New Delhi: As geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel begin to ease following the ceasefire announcement, Indian advertising expenditure is expected to see a renewed upward momentum, say industry leaders. 

While the overall impact of the conflict on Indian adex remained muted, experts point to a likely uptick in business confidence, consumer sentiment, and brand storytelling in the weeks ahead.

“Yes, I do expect a positive impact as the geopolitical tensions ease,” said Shibu Shivanandan, CEO of PivotRoots. “The Sensex is going up, likely in response to the ceasefire announcement. And while this may not be actual cash in hand, a rising market gives consumers a psychological sense of wealth, boosting spending across categories.”

Shivanandan stated that only select categories like travel and B2B were mildly affected during the period of uncertainty. “We work with a travel client, and we saw their search volumes fall due to disrupted flights. Similarly, exporters building B2C products in India reported challenges tied to import-export flows. But beyond that, core Indian categories like auto, financial services, FMCG, and startups saw no significant cutbacks in ad spends,” he said.

Shivanandan added that geopolitical crises tend to trigger a tactical shift in ad strategies, moving budgets from brand-building to lower-funnel digital performance campaigns. “This isn’t new. It’s the same pattern we saw during COVID-19. While I didn’t observe a massive budget shift this time, we did see a reallocation of around 5–10% in some cases. If the war had escalated, top-of-the-funnel brand campaigns would likely have been paused.”

When asked about how the brands strategised adex allocation on news platforms with the increase in news consumption during the global war period, a media agency buyer told BestMediaInfo that while some brands leaned into news platforms to capitalise on heightened consumption, others paused campaigns to avoid being associated with negative sentiment.

Global brands, in particular, scaled back aspirational and celebratory messaging during the conflict. “International advertisers tend to be cautious, as any communication in one region could have global repercussions,” Shivanandan noted. “In contrast, Indian brands largely continued with pre-planned festive campaigns. Some were already working on Rakhi creatives during the war.”

Another media buyer echoed, “While the global adex was projected to dip by 2–4% due to the Israel-Iran conflict, with multinational brands adopting a wait-and-watch approach, India was seen as a relatively insulated market, continuing to attract steady ad investments despite geopolitical uncertainty. She added, “Categories such as travel, fintech, and global e-commerce were reportedly the most cautious, while Indian advertisers stayed the course, driven by domestic demand and festive planning.”

With tensions now easing, he expects a return to upbeat storytelling and aspirational brand messaging. “I anticipate a broader uplift, not just in adex, but also in creative confidence, market sentiment, and investment across media channels,” he said.

The conflict also highlighted the importance of contingency planning. Shivanandan confirmed that most agencies today have well-defined playbooks to respond quickly to geopolitical events. “Digital advertising is user-centric, not platform-centric. So if a target consumer is reading conflict-related news, your ad could appear there by default,” he explained.

“That's why we have triggers and exclusion filters. If a crisis hits, we know what to pause, where to reallocate, and how to redirect budgets. Our teams are equipped with backup performance data and next-best platform strategies.”

Echoing a cautious-yet-optimistic outlook, Shashi Sinha, Executive Chairman of IPG Mediabrands, said, “It’s too early to predict long-term outcomes, but so far, AdEx has remained stable.” The biggest risk, he said,  had been of commodity-linked inflation, particularly if oil prices would have risen above a certain mark, which would have impacted categories relying heavily on commodities.” 

He added, “As of now, oil prices are under control, and most companies have inventory and buffers in place.”

To sum up, while the global tensions led to caution to some extent, India’s advertising market showed resilience. An industry source said, “Indian advertisers largely stayed committed to planned campaigns, particularly in FMCG, auto, and digital-first sectors. While there was heightened sensitivity around messaging, especially for global brands operating in multiple markets, the overall sentiment within India remained optimistic.”