What is fuelling bipolar buying among consumers

New Delhi: Indian e-commerce is moving into a new growth phase in 2026, driven by a structural shift in how consumers discover, decide and purchase online, according to LS Digital’s latest report, The Great Indian Commerce Shift. 

The report, based on an analysis of more than 1.5 million orders across 30+ enterprise brands during the festive season from July to December 2025, argues that consumer behaviour, media efficiency and fulfillment models will be the defining levers of e-commerce growth this year.

The study said it is seeing a collapse of the traditional linear sales funnel, replaced by what it calls “bipolar buying”. Consumers are splitting behaviour between two distinct economies, the “Need-It-Now” quick commerce economy and the “Planned Premium” marketplace economy. 

LS Digital said purchase journeys are no longer predictable, with intent increasingly shaped by urgency, context and speed rather than scale-driven exposure.

The report also flags festive 2025 as the moment the market saw an “efficiency flip”. Marketplace conversion rates improved from 4.4% to 6.1%. At the same time, D2C brands reduced ad spends by nearly 120–180 basis points and still delivered a 55% improvement in ROAS. 

LS Digital said the data indicates a shift away from volume-led growth towards contribution-led performance, driven by sharper targeting and higher-intent demand.

Quick commerce, the report said, has emerged as a dominant force for low-ticket and impulse purchases, extending well beyond groceries. According to the findings, quick commerce delivered 3–5x higher conversion rates than traditional marketplaces for items priced under Rs 500, compressing the consideration window and converting intent directly into purchase.

Marketplaces, meanwhile, continue to play a critical role for premium, high-consideration categories where trust and reliability remain key.

On media and efficiency, the report said ad inflation in 2025 was category-specific, not systemic. It pointed to sharp CPC inflation in some categories, with Personal Care and Home & Décor seeing CPC inflation of 77% and 71%, respectively. 

At the same time, categories such as Innerwear and Household Supplies recorded CPC deflation of 33% and 46%. LS Digital said this creates “efficiency arbitrage” opportunities for brands willing to rebalance media investments.

The report also underlines the growing weight of smaller markets in driving e-commerce volumes. Tier 2 and Tier 3 markets accounted for 65% of festive orders, reinforcing Bharat as the primary engine of e-commerce growth, it said.

On operations and fulfilment, LS Digital said speed has emerged as a decisive trust lever. For the first time, 51% of festive orders were fulfilled via stores, overtaking centralised warehouses. The report added that delivery timelines exceeding three days led to a 140% spike in return-to-origin rates, particularly for cash-on-delivery orders in non-metro markets, making ship-from-store models critical for profitable scale.

Commenting on the findings, Rupak Ved, Group CBO and CEO, Media, LS Digital, said, “The 2025 festive season made one thing clear: growth is no longer a function of scale alone. The linear funnel is dead, and shoppers have split into two distinct economies. In 2026, efficiency will not come from bidding smarter but will come from allocating budgets correctly across the funnel and building intent before the conversion window open. Brands that align with ‘Platform Personality’ will see exponential efficiency gains, while those chasing volume will struggle against the inflation wall.”

LS Digital said the findings underline that in 2026, competitive advantage will be shaped by how effectively brands convert real-time intent into frictionless commerce, optimise blended customer acquisition costs (CAC), and build speed across media and fulfilment.