Retail media to overtake TV ad spends in 2026

New Delhi: Retail media is set to overtake television advertising in 2026. WARC Media’s latest outlook puts global retail media investment at $196.7 billion in 2026, or 16% of all ad spend, edging past the combined outlay on linear and connected TV. 

The market is forecast at $174.9 billion in 2025, up 13.7% year-on-year, before crossing the $200-billion mark by 2027 as growth tapers to 11.6%.

WARC’s Future of Commerce Media 2025 report stated the “gold-rush” phase is fading as brands consolidate budgets across fewer retail media networks and the channel shifts beyond sponsored search. 

Retailers are being pushed to become full-funnel platforms with granular display and off-site solutions, while preparing for the impact of AI and agentic commerce.

The research finds 40% of agency buyers now view retail media as a full-funnel solution, with a further 7% seeing upper-funnel potential. 

Although display is currently under 30% of on-site retail media, WARC expects the balance to tilt as retail media integrates more closely with brand digital budgets. 

Amazon continues to dominate, growing ad revenue 15% year-on-year as it expands a full-funnel proposition and its demand-side platform (DSP). Inventory partners now include Roku, Disney, Netflix, Spotify and Microsoft. Over 20% of Amazon ad investment now flows through the DSP, double the share two years ago.

Quick-commerce is another growth pocket. Instacart, Uber, Delivery Hero and DoorDash each run ad businesses above $1 billion annually. WARC noted scale will be a key determinant of retail media network viability as spending growth slows and marketers become more selective. It also flags that tariff concerns pulled some budgets forward in H1 2025, particularly in Europe.

On AI’s role, WARC sizes agentic commerce—shopping journeys powered by AI agents—at $136 billion in 2025, with potential to reach $1.7 trillion by 2030. The report cautions against narrow ROAS-only evaluation and urges holistic measurement that accounts for brand equity, creative and seasonality as agentic tools roll out.

Retail media is moving from a lower-funnel, search-led channel to an integrated brand-and-commerce marketplace.