CTV to overtake pay TV by 2030, broadcasters to compete with short-video and gaming cos

New Delhi: The total TV subscriptions are projected to climb to between 210 and 240 million by 2030, driven by rising household growth and expanding broadband access, according to an EY report on the M&E sector. 

The report predicts that wired broadband homes will hit 100 million by the end of the decade, fueled by falling average revenue per user (ARPU) rates, which are expected to stabilize at Rs 700 per month—roughly double the current pay TV rates.

The growth in subscriptions, however, masks a deeper evolution in viewing habits. As wired broadband connections—already at 38 million per TRAI data—surpass 60 to 70 million and 5G connections exceed 250 million by 2026 or 2027, connected TVs (CTVs) are expected to see a sharp rise in adoption. This surge will challenge traditional pay TV, with the report forecasting a decline in pay TV homes to 83 million by 2030, down from a peak of 130 million.

“Once OTT bundling scales up and pricing parity between OTT and linear TV becomes more evident, the erosion of traditional TV homes could accelerate,” the report warned. 

By 2030, CTVs are projected to overtake pay TV as the dominant distributor of large-screen content, reshaping how broadcasters reach audiences. However, this transition will pit broadcasters against not only each other but also social media, short-form video platforms, and gaming—all vying for viewer attention on the same screens.

To stay competitive, the report urges broadcasters to diversify their offerings and reorient their organisations toward audience segmentation. “Broadcasters will need to build first-party consumer data at scale to tailor content and advertising effectively,” stated the report.

This shift will also demand a rethink of TV measurement. The report advocates moving from traditional TV metrics to a “large-screen” measurement framework, potentially centred on cost-per-mille (CPM) as a common currency. Such a system would enable more precise planning across platforms and audience segments. 

The report mentioned that sales strategies will pivot to reach and frequency metrics, leveraging massive measurement tools like household-level return-path data. This could allow broadcasters to split their advertising beams and target viewers with unprecedented granularity.

The forecast aligns with broader trends in India’s digital economy, where household growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1% and affordable connectivity are unlocking new opportunities. Yet, the rise of CTVs and OTT platforms signals a challenging road ahead for legacy broadcasters.

As India’s media landscape braces for this transformation, industry leaders are calling for innovation and collaboration to navigate the convergence of TV, internet, and entertainment by 2030.