AI push powers Amazon, Meta, and Google to control over half of global ad market

New Delhi: Artificial intelligence has become the driving force behind a massive shift in global advertising, helping tech giants Amazon, Meta, and Google (Alphabet) seize 54.7% of all ad spend outside China, according to WARC’s latest global advertising forecast. 

Collectively, the trio is expected to rake in $524.4 billion in ad revenue this year, with their combined share projected to climb further to 56.2% in 2025.

The surge comes amid explosive growth in AI-driven content generation, ad optimisation, and platform personalisation—creating a significant moat for these digital giants even as other sectors pull back on spending due to economic and trade headwinds.

AI supercharges search, social, and retail media

Among all digital formats, social media leads the global advertising landscape with an expected $298.3 billion in ad spend this year, accounting for 25.8% of the total market. Meta, which controls a significant share of this segment, is forecast to grow its ad revenue by 12.6% to $142.1 billion, bolstered by the rollout of its AI-powered creative and ad placement suite designed primarily for SMEs.

Search advertising, expected to grow 7.4% to $248.6 billion, represents 21.5% of global ad spend in 2025. Google remains dominant here, with an estimated $213.3 billion take, capturing 85.8% of the search market. AI integration into search journeys may disrupt monetisation models long-term, but Google’s stronghold remains intact—especially through its SME advertiser base.

Retail media, now the fastest-growing channel, is expected to rise 14.4% to $176.2 billion, overtaking linear TV in global share for the first time. Amazon leads this space, with ad revenue forecast to grow 16.1% to $60.6 billion in 2025, giving it 35.4% of global retail media spend and 5.7% of all ad spend globally. The company’s dominance comes even as it navigates U.S. tariff pressure on Chinese sellers, who make up a significant portion of its vendor base.

Internet advertising inches toward $1 trillion

Pure-play internet advertising, covering social, retail media, paid search, online display and classifieds, reached $195.2 billion in Q1 2025, making up 70.8% of all global ad spend. WARC estimates that full-year growth will average 9.8%, bringing the annual total to $829.2 billion. By 2028, this figure is projected to exceed $1 trillion, representing nearly 80% of all global ad spend.

Sector slowdowns and shifting patterns

While tech platforms thrive, several categories are cutting back:

• Retail ad spend is expected to drop 6.1% this year, particularly in the U.S., due to tightening margins and rising tariffs on imports from China. Amazon and Walmart are especially exposed.
  
  
• Automotive advertising is set to fall 4.0%, with budgets shifting from linear TV to digital formats. For the first time, auto ad spend on social media will surpass TV.
  
  
• CPG brands, facing trade disruptions and supply chain strain, will grow ad spend just 6.7%, down from stronger growth in 2024.
  
  

Still, digital continues to dominate even in sluggish economies. In the UK, for instance, 84.6% of all ad spend in 2025 will go to online formats, led by search (+8.2%) and social media (+13.1%).

Global ad market to grow $1.16 trillion – But with volatility

WARC forecasts global advertising spend to grow 6.2% this year, reaching $1.16 trillion, though that marks a 0.5-point downgrade from March due to rising global trade barriers, tariff wars, and fragile macroeconomic outlooks in key markets like the U.S., Germany, and Japan.

Despite this uncertainty, AI-backed platforms like Amazon, Meta, and Google are weathering the storm—and thriving, as they automate ad delivery, localise creative, and optimise campaign performance in real time across an expanding ecosystem of formats and audiences.