Indian adex 2023 growth settles at 11.2%; to grow at 12.1% in 2024: GroupM TYNY year-end forecast

Indian adex grew by 11.2% to generate $16.9 billion (Rs 1,40,270 crore) in 2023, climbing to 8th position from 9th globally, according to GroupM’s ‘This year, Next year’ 2023 Global End-of-Year Forecast.

Earlier in February 2023, GroupM in India had forecast 15.5% adex growth for the market, reaching Rs 1,46,450 crore.

The Indian adex is expected to grow by 12.1% and reach Rs 1,52,740 crore in 2024.

The US and China retain their positions as the two largest ad revenue markets, respectively

At the close of 2023, the global advertising market remains on pace for 5.8% annual growth, despite inflation and high interest rates. Global advertising in 2023 is forecast to total $889 billion (Excluding US political advertising).

GroupM stated that while nominal growth will decelerate slightly in 2024, the five-year outlook remains strong, with retail media and digital out-of-home poised for aggressive expansion.

Digital

Search, the second largest segment in the digital ad revenue bucket is expected to reach nearly $200 billion in revenue in 2023, growing 7.8%. This will be followed by a 6.2% increase in 2024, potentially fueled in part by increased interest and competition in the sector following the integration of generative AI in search results.

TV

Total TV ad revenue will remain roughly flat over the next five years, growing just 1.1% on a compound annual basis. This growth is coming primarily from CTV, which is expected to grow 9.5% on a compound annual basis to $45.8 billion in 2028. Linear TV will see a -1.3% CAGR through 2028.

OOH

Out-of-home (OOH) is forecast to grow 10.3% in 2023, although it will not surpass 2019 levels until 2024 and, as it stands currently, is not expected to regain its pre-pandemic share of total ad revenue even by 2028.

Audio

Audio ad revenue, including streaming audio, will total $26.4 billion in 2023 (a decline of 2.9% compared to 2022) and is forecast to grow just 0.4% in 2024.

Print

Print, including both traditional and digital forms of newspapers and magazines, is expected to decline 4.6% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. Digital extensions of news are forecast to make up 42.4% of total news ad revenue in 2024 compared to 29.5% for audio.

Cinema

Cinema ad revenue is forecast to grow 14.7% in 2023 before decelerating to 3.4% in 2024. Total revenue for the channel is expected to pass $2.2 billion in 2024, although we don't expect the channel will surpass 2019 levels ($3.0 billion) within the next five years.

As per the report, the three major shifts that are happening:

Direct to consumers

Advertisers, even those enlisting the expertise of agencies, are drawing on deeper and often more direct relationships with their customers. This is especially true of the automotive, media and entertainment sectors, disintermediating customer marketing and allowing for more personalised messaging (where consented/logged in).

Sports and events

The main industry categories contributing to global advertising are CPG, Auto, luxury, technology, media & entertainment and digital endemics (categories mentioned in descending order).

CPG advertisers (including alcohol) will make up 19.7% of total ad revenue in 2023, the largest overall contributor. Auto advertisers are increasingly replacing the dealership model with a direct-sales model, turning dealerships into de facto agencies while manufacturers own the customer relationship. While the industry is increasingly leaning on digital channels —particularly influencers but also CTV and social video—it remains one of the biggest buyers of print and OOH media. Luxury advertisers represented 2.2% of global ad revenue in 2022 and are expected to maintain roughly the same share in 2023.

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