GroupM forecasts India's advertising revenue growth to accelerate to 16.8% in 2023

According to GroupM’s This Year, Next Year 2022 global end-of-year forecast, India's advertising revenue growth is forecasted to accelerate to 16.8% in 2023. The forecast for 2022 stands at 15.8% generating $14.9 billion in ad revenue.

According to the forecast, this growth is led by pure-play digital advertising, which accounts for the largest share (48.8%) in 2022 and is expected to continue rising above pre-pandemic levels.

Retail media in India is forecast at $551 million in 2022 and is expected to nearly double by 2027. TV advertising, representing 36% of the advertising market share, is expected to grow 10.8% this year and continue growing double digits, driven by strong growth in both traditional and connected TV.

The forecast also highlighted that India will overtake Brazil (ranked eighth) in terms of ad revenue growth in 2023.

The report states, “India’s economic outlook appears to be stronger relative to other markets with the IMF projecting real GDP growth of 6.8% in 2022, positioning it as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Fiscal policy drivers, such as improved investments in digital infrastructure, a growing labour force and becoming an attractive exporter, partly explains its strong growth. Like many of its global peers, the Indian economy is also facing uncertainty amid wider geopolitical risks, enduring inflation pressures from a weak currency, high unemployment and high-interest rates.”

Global forecast highlights:

GroupM expects global advertising to grow 5.9% in 2023, behind the IMF’s expectation for global inflation of 6.5% and a downgrade from its own 6.4% June estimate.

Globally, retail media, one of the fastest-growing segments of the advertising industry, is now estimated to reach $110.7 billion dollars in 2022, an upgrade from our September forecast of $101 billion.

Similarly, Television continues its recovery to pre-pandemic levels, albeit more slowly in 2022, with an expected global growth rate of 1.7% (excluding US political advertising).

Growth in global OOH this year will amount to 2.2% globally (excluding US political spending), or 18.1% on an excluding-China basis.

Audio is projected to grow 3.8% globally in 2022 (excluding US political advertising) and decelerate to 1.3% growth in 2023.

After a brief respite in 2021, traditional print continues its decline of 7.4% in 2022, globally. Print-based media will decline by 3.7% when including digital extensions, which are forecast to make up nearly half of total revenue this year and more than three-quarters of revenue by 2026.

Top 10 market highlights:

• United States: Advertising on pure-play digital platforms, despite decelerating growth in 2022, continues to increase its share and will account for two-thirds of total ad revenue within the next two years.
• China: China has seen a far greater economic impact from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022 than was expected at the outset of the year. This acted as a drag on consumption and ultimately led to our lowered forecast of -0.6% growth of advertising revenue in 2022.
• Japan: For 2022, it was estimated that Japanese advertising revenue will grow 7%, with that figure decelerating to 4.4% in 2023. This growth is led by pure-play digital advertising, which accounts for the largest share (57.9%) in 2022 and is expected to continue rising above pre-pandemic levels.
• United Kingdom: Digital pure-play platforms, a medium set to account for 80% of total ad revenue this year will grow 11%, outpaced by retail media (a subset of digital), which is forecast will reach £6.5bn by 2027.
• Germany: Within digital advertising budgets, retail media will play an increasingly important role in 2023, with growth forecasts of 13% in line with the broader digital channel, while search will grow slightly faster at 15%.
• France: GroupM anticipates a deceleration of growth in 2023 to 6.3% with a focus on media that delivers short-term efficiency and return on investment. As a result, 100% of the estimated growth is expected to be in digital media, particularly performance-based media and retail.
• Canada: Advertising revenue in Canada is forecasted to grow 5.8% during 2022, with that figure further accelerating to 8% in 2023. This growth is led by pure-play digital advertising, which accounts for the largest share (72.8%) in 2022 and is expected to continue rising above pre-pandemic levels.
• Brazil: Retail media, a subset of digital revenue, is forecast at more than $170 million in 2022 and is expected to grow 18% in 2023, following 25% growth in 2022.
• India:  India's advertising revenue growth is forecasted to accelerate to 16.8% in 2023. The forecast for 2022 stands at 15.8%. This growth is led by pure-play digital advertising, which accounts for the largest share (48.8%) in 2022 and is expected to continue rising above pre-pandemic levels.

Of the other top 10 tracked markets, five will grow ahead of inflation (Australia, Brazil, France, India and Japan), while four will grow slightly behind country-level headline inflation (the U.K., U.S., Canada and Germany). In addition to China, only Sri Lanka, where a cost-of-living crisis persists after mass protests led to the president’s resignation in July, is expected to record a nominal decline.

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