Warc has predicted in its fresh forecast that Indian adspends will shrink by 27.7% in 2020. At the same time, it has said the market will grow by 14.2% in 2021.
Going by Warc data, the Indian market will have to grow by more than 21% in 2022 to recover to the 2020 levels. On a moderate growth rate, Indian adspends will not be able to fully recover in 2022.
Global advertising spend is on course to fall by 10.2% – $63.4bn – to $557.3bn in 2020, Warc data predicts, as traditional media have their worst year on record.
The details are out in a new report, WARC Global Advertising Trends: State of The Industry 2020/21, which says it will take at least two years for the global ad market to fully recover. A forecast of 6.7% rise in 2021 will only recoup 59% of 2020’s losses; the market would need to grow by 4.4% in 2022 to match 2019’s peak of $620.6bn.
Trends by region
* North America: Down 4.3% ($9.9bn) to $221.0bn. The region will see spends rise by 3.8% next year, with the US recouping 89% of 2020’s losses.
* Asia-Pacific: Down 9.7% ($18.8bn) to $174.4bn, before rising 8.5% in 2021: China +7.7%, Japan +10.2%, Australia +13.2%, India +14.2%.
* Europe: Down 14.5% ($21.5bn) to $127.0bn but forecast to grow 10.2% in 2021, recovering 60% of 2020’s losses: UK +14.7%, Germany +9.0%, Spain +12.5%, France +7.1%, Italy +11.3%, Russia +6.8%.
* Latin America: Down 32.3% in 2020, led by a sharp 43.2% decline in Brazil (though this is inflated by a sharp devaluation of the Brazilian Real against the US dollar). Spend is expected to be flat in Latin America next year.
* Middle East: Down 20.2% ($2.9bn) to $11.3bn in 2020, as oil-rich economies suffer from falling commodity prices. Growth of 7.0% is forecast for next year.
* Africa: Down 23.3% to $5.0bn this year, with a slight 2.1% rise expected in 2021 as key markets start to recover from sustained recessions.