Warc lowers global ad spend rise in 2015

The firm predicts that India is expected to see 11 per cent year-on-year increase in ad spending in 2015

BestMediaInfo Bureau | Mumbai | January 27, 2015

Growth in global advertising expenditure is projected to slow to 5.1 per cent this year, following an estimated rise of 5.3 per cent in January, according to the latest Consensus Ad Forecast from Warc. The firm, which weighs its predictions on the adspend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, and other industry bodies across 13 markets, found that India was to see an 11 per cent year-on-year increase in ad spending in 2015.

Of the 13 markets covered in the report, 12 are forecast net growth in ad spend in 2015. However, this rate of growth has been revised downwards for nine countries since our previous forecast in July 2014. It should be noted that total forecast global ad spend for the year has been raised 0.1pp since the last report.

Warc observed that BRIC countries will be the strongest performers, with India, China and Brazil expected to see all-media growth of 11.6%, 10.3% and 7.1% respectively. The UK is forecast to show the fourth-largest growth rate this year at 5.7%, unchanged from July.

All media, barring newspapers and magazines, are predicted to record year-on-year growth in 2015, with internet seeing the greatest increase, up 16 per cent. TV has seen the largest downgrade of 2.7 per cent with growth this year now expected to come in behind cinema's four per cent and the 3.9 per cent projected for 'Out of Home'.

James McDonald, a research analyst at Warc said: “The global economic outlook is more uncertain than six months ago, with Eurozone stagnation, Russian sanctions and a slowdown in Asia all threatening growth. It is therefore unsurprising that many market-watchers, including us, have revised down expectations.

France is predicted to be the only country in which ad spend will contract in 2015, down 0.1%. This is a downward revision of 1.0pp from July's forecast, when growth of 0.9% had been expected. The single largest downgrade in expectations from the previous report was in Russia, with forecast growth of 1.4% this year a far cry from the 8.5% predicted six months ago.

“Despite the uncertainty, we should still see growth in global advertising expenditure of between 5-6 per cent this year and next,” McDonald added.

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