Global adspend predicted to increase by 4% in 2013

Warc's Consensus Ad Forecast has lowered the growth forecast by -0.9pp from August's forecast

BestMediaInfo Bureau | Delhi | January 11, 2013

The latest Consensus Ad Forecast from Warc, the London-based marketing intelligence service, indicates that global advertising spend will increase by 4 per cent in 2013, a downgrade of -0.9pp from August's forecast. Adspend is expected to grow more rapidly in 2014, rising 5.5 per cent.

Warc's Consensus Ad Forecast is based on a weighted average of adspend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, Warc's own team and other industry bodies.

Of the 13 markets covered by the report, the adspend in 11 are forecast to grow in 2013. However, all countries, with the exception of Brazil, have seen expectations lowered since the last Consensus Forecast, released in August 2012.

Russia, China and Brazil are predicted to record the biggest increases in advertising spend in 2013 with all-media growth of 12.3 per cent, 10.9 per cent and 9.8 per cent, respectively. These markets are expected to maintain high levels of growth in 2014.

By contrast, Spain and Italy are expected to be the worst performers this year, with predicted declines of -2.8 per cent and -1.1 pre cent, respectively. Both have had their forecasts significantly downgraded but are expected to return to growth in 2014.

Adspend growth by country, 2013 vs 2012

The only channel predicted to show growth in all 13 markets is the Internet. Online spend is expected to rise by 13.8 per cent in 2013, although this still represents a decline of -0.6pp since our August forecast. All other media have also had expectations trimmed in recent months.

Adspend growth by medium

Suzy Young, Data Editor, Warc, said, "In 2012, the industry benefited from the Olympics and the US presidential election. In 2013, we're all keen to see how advertising holds up without these quadrennial factors. There are still risks for global economic growth. Marketers are not ready to adjust their cautious approach just yet."

Info@BestMediaInfo.com

Info@BestMediaInfo.com