Deloitte sees India’s GDP rising 6.7 to 6.9% this fiscal year

New Delhi: Deloitte India has projected the country’s economy to grow by 6.7–6.9% in the current fiscal year, citing buoyant demand and ongoing policy reforms.

India’s economy expanded by 7.8% in the April–June quarter of the fiscal year. Deloitte India’s ‘India Economic Outlook’ report forecasts a GDP growth range of 6.7–6.9%, averaging 6.8% for FY26, up 0.3 percentage points from the firm’s previous forecast.

“This performance signals not just resilience but a renewed sense of India emerging stronger than most nations. Similar growth rates are expected in the subsequent year, but the range of variation remains broader due to uncertainties associated with trade and investment,” the report noted.

The forecast aligns with the Reserve Bank of India’s projection of 6.8% growth for FY26. Deloitte said growth is likely to be supported by robust domestic demand, accommodative monetary policy, and structural reforms, including GST 2.0, while low inflation may improve purchasing power and encourage spending.

Deloitte India Economist Rumki Majumdar highlighted the role of festive-quarter demand, saying, “There is also anticipation that India will strike a deal with the US and the EU by the end of the year, which is expected to elevate overall investment sentiments. Strong growth in the first and third quarters is likely to drive overall annual growth.”

Majumdar added that growth in FY26 remains exposed to global uncertainties. “Escalating trade uncertainties and India's inability to secure a trade deal with the United States are potential risks that could impact India’s economic growth. Restrictions on access to critical minerals and higher inflation in the West could lead to increased inflationary pressures in India,” she said.

She also pointed to domestic inflation challenges: “While years of policy efforts have helped bring down headline inflation, largely due to easing food and fuel prices, core inflation remains stubbornly high, consistently above 4 per cent since February. This persistent price pressure could constrain the Reserve Bank of India’s ability to pursue further rate cuts.”

Majumdar further noted the potential impact of global monetary policy: “Moreover, if the US Federal Reserve maintains elevated policy rates for an extended period, it could tighten global liquidity conditions, further limiting the RBI's monetary flexibility. Such a scenario may also accelerate capital outflows from emerging markets like India, a trend already visible in recent months.”

Deloitte observed that while recent policy efforts have focused on boosting domestic consumption, attention is shifting towards empowering the MSME sector, which plays a critical role in employment, income generation, exports, and investment.