When will quick commerce replace e-commerce?

New Delhi: Blinkit took the world by storm when it turned EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) positive for the first time in 2024. Now, the question is when will quick commerce replace e-commerce.

Speaking at a panel discussion at adtech 2025, Deepender Rana, Executive Managing Director, Insights, South Asia at Kantar, said, “One in eight online commerce buyers is now also a quick commerce buyer. For many players, quick commerce accounts for anywhere between 30% to 50% of their total e-commerce transactions.”

Bhaskar Ramesh, Director – Omnichannel at Google, highlighted a shift in consumer behavior. He observed that quick commerce has alleviated the cognitive load of creating shopping lists, taking this responsibility off the consumer's mind.

Ramesh also noted that 10% of Indian households, representing the top 20–30 million households, are willing to pay a premium for convenience. 

He believes this offers more consumption opportunities, better assortment and discovery, as well as local options. “This trend indicates strong future growth for quick commerce,” he said.

Furthermore, Ramesh pointed out that modern trade has not eliminated general trade, and all channels will continue to coexist. This is particularly true in a country like India, which supports a diverse retail ecosystem. 

“Even in advanced sectors like smartphones, e-commerce accounts for only 50% of sales, suggesting a natural ceiling for online commerce,” he added.

Moreover, Ramesh made a bold prediction that in the top 100 cities in India, quick commerce will become the preferred shopping method for the majority of Indians.

“In some categories, quick commerce will overtake e-commerce as the natural way to shop. With our partners in quick commerce, we are seeing that even non-FMCG products now constitute 20–30% of the total Gross Merchandise Value (GMV).”

Anuja Mishra, EVP and CMO at Honasa, said, “What we see emerging is a clear pattern where certain categories tend to over-index significantly on quick commerce. While these are still early observations, the trends are definitive. For instance, we’ve noticed that categories like dry shampoos perform remarkably well on e-commerce—much better than other categories. Additionally, travel packs and sunscreens are consistently over-indexed in this space, achieving over 200% growth.”

“The interesting aspect is how the increasing number of players in the market are working to define the distinct offerings that each player provides to consumers and brands within these sub-categories. This differentiation introduces greater relevance. Furthermore, we are already seeing a surge in advertising on many of these platforms, reflecting the growing importance of this trend,” Mishra added.

Weighing in on the discussion, Chandan Mukherji, Director & Executive VP, Strategy & Marketing at Nestle, said, “Quick commerce tends to be over-indexed in certain categories, while e-commerce is dominant in others. This differentiation arises from the fundamentally distinct business models of these channels and their unique approaches to meeting consumer demands.”

“For example, categories like electronics and home decor often thrive in the e-commerce space due to the wider range, variety, and options available. On the other hand, quick commerce is particularly over-indexed in FMCG categories, as it can cater to immediate consumer needs, often delivering products within minutes,” Mukherji explained.

However, Mukherji was of the view that quick commerce will not replace e-commerce, adding that there will be co-existence.

Google’s Ramesh talked about a new product called ‘Performance Max for Marketplace’ that the tech giant is developing in collaboration with quick commerce companies. This aims to create a more seamless product discovery experience and drive performance on quick commerce platforms, offering a novel approach to customer acquisition.

“We believe this is an effective way to build a robust ecosystem, where advertising will play a key role in ensuring profitability for quick commerce companies,” he said.

Towards the end of the session, Kantar’s Rana asked the panelists how they are dealing with the new way of brand building on quick commerce platforms.

To this, Mukherji of Nestle said, “At the end of the day, I see this as an opportunity. With India's current penetration across categories and low per capita consumption levels, there is significant room for growth. The ability to achieve faster fulfillment through quick commerce only enhances this opportunity.

“Of course, this will lead to increased competition and the presence of more brands. As a result, end-to-end brand building has become crucial. For instance, we have a brand like KitKat, which stands for taking breaks. Quick commerce aligns perfectly with this concept—as soon as you feel like having a break, you can get your craving fulfilled almost immediately.

The average basket value in quick commerce typically comprises about five different products. Therefore, it becomes essential for categories and brands to maintain relevance and salience, ensuring they are part of that top five."

To summarise, a cohort exists that prioritises convenience as a key necessity. However, the exact size of this group remains uncertain and can only be determined over time.