Indian producers brace for fallout as Trump threatens 100% tariff on foreign films

New Delhi: Producers and distributors say it is too early to gauge the impact of US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 100% tariff on all movies made outside the United States, but warn that if the levy covers Indian films releasing in North America, ticket prices could rise and footfalls may soften.

Shibasish Sarkar, president of the Producers Guild of India, urged caution until the implementation details are published. “We should wait till he comes with a circular on the same. It seems that he is focused on the US films, which are going outside of the US for production and he wants to raise the tariff when they come to the home country for exhibition. The objective is to bring local employment and investment. In such a scenario, a non-US film releasing in the US, I don’t foresee any major impact,” he told PTI. If the tariff is applied across the board, he added, producers would likely pass on costs to consumers, which could trim footfalls. Sarkar estimated a 3–4% revenue impact for Hindi films (with the US contributing only 6–7% of their overall revenue) and 5–6% for Tamil and Telugu films, for which the US is a larger market.

Leading distributor Rajesh Thadani called the proposal unclear but said a blanket tariff on Indian films would push up ticket rates and potentially dampen theatrical turnout. He also noted it is not yet known whether streaming platforms such as Netflix would fall within the scope of the measure.

Exhibitor-distributor Akshay Rathi said North America remains a critical territory for Telugu cinema in particular. He expects theatres to re-balance pricing if the policy takes effect: “It is in the interest of the theatres over there to make sure they price the ticket sensibly… I’m sure they will find a solution so consumption is not hampered.” Still, he said, the fine print will determine outcomes.

Producer Ramesh Taurani of Tips Films echoed the uncertainty: “It’s too early to comment on this… We should wait and watch for things to get sorted.”

Adding a corporate perspective, Sanjay Dwivedi, Group CEO and Group CFO of Balaji Telefilms, said any shock would likely be short-term and limited for Indian studios: “The announcement of a 100% tariff on movies by President Donald Trump can create short-term disruption in the global film trade. For us, the direct impact on the Indian market and our distribution system is expected to be very limited. Cross-border industries also concur with this view.” He questioned enforceability in modern, distributed production pipelines: “We live in a world where movies are made across locations, across countries. A Hollywood animated movie could outsource special effects to a studio in India, but the colour corrections can be done in another country and audio/video in a third. It’s very complicated… not quite sure how it will be implemented or how it will be effective.” Dwivedi added that American consumers could end up footing the bill, with higher ticket prices and subscription fees, potentially forcing producers to accept lower revenues. For Balaji specifically, he said US exposure is not significant, and no revenue impact is expected for its movie segment this quarter.

Trump, who first floated the idea in May and reiterated it this week on Truth Social, did not specify when the tariff would start, how it would be calculated, or whether streaming releases would be included. He framed the move as an attempt to bring film production back to the US. Until formal rules are published, Indian studios and distributors say they will maintain a wait-and-watch stance while modelling scenarios for pricing, P&A, and release strategies in North America.