Vivo stays No.1; Apple records best India quarter, but Omdia sees fade in Q4

New Delhi: India’s smartphone market ticked up 3% year-on-year in Q3 2025 to 48.4 million units shipped, according to Omdia, which cautioned that the momentum was driven more by channel incentives and early festive stocking than by true demand, and is unlikely to hold through the December quarter.

“The quarter’s momentum was largely sustained through incentive-led channel push rather than pure consumer recovery,” said Sanyam Chaurasia, Principal Analyst at Omdia.

Vendors flooded retail with new models launched in July-August, backed by cash-per-unit bonuses, tiered margins and dealer contests (from gold coins to bikes and international trips). Consumer-facing schemes, from zero-down-payment EMIs and micro-instalments to bundled accessories and extended warranties, helped conversions, Omdia said.

On the leaderboard, vivo (ex-iQOO) extended its lead with 9.7 million units (20% share). Samsung ranked second at 6.8 million (14%). Xiaomi took third, narrowly ahead of OPPO (ex-OnePlus), with both shipping 6.5 million units.

Apple returned to the top five with 4.9 million units and a record 10% share for India in a single quarter, driven by smaller-city demand, festive offers and wider availability.

Omdia noted discount-led upgrades on older iPhone 16 and 15 lines, early traction for the iPhone 17 base model, and a push to deepen Apple’s ecosystem for longer-term value.

Still, the research firm flagged inventory risks for Q4. While government-led measures such as GST reductions on select durables lifted overall retail sentiment, smartphone-specific demand recovery remains limited.

“Urban consumers continue to delay upgrades due to employment uncertainties and rising cost sensitivity,” Chaurasia said, adding that sell-out lags shipment growth, raising the likelihood of an inventory build-up after November. Rural demand has been steadier but not strong enough to offset urban caution.

Omdia also clarified that shipment figures represent devices leaving factories to channels/distributors, not retail sales. For full-year 2025, the firm continues to expect a modest decline, citing a fragile recovery cycle highly sensitive to macro tailwinds and ongoing channel correction.