From data flows to film certification: Koan Advisory maps realistic trades in India–US talks

New Delhi: Digital trade rules and procedural improvements in the audiovisual and broadcasting sector offer the most realistic common ground for a phase-one trade agreement between India and the United States this year, according to Koan Advisory’s latest report. 

While neither side is expected to concede on the underlying market structures in politically sensitive areas, the think tank said proportionate, exception-based cross-border data rules and cleaner content certification processes could be locked in as tangible wins.

On broadcasting and audiovisual, India’s regime remains heavily regulated, with foreign ownership caps of 26% in newspapers and digital news and 49% in FM radio, alongside preferences in satellite capacity procurement, uplinking and downlinking restrictions, and TRAI’s controls on pricing and bundling. 

The US, though less restrictive on content, requires Federal Communications Commission approval for foreign ownership above certain thresholds, applying public-interest and security considerations.

US concerns about delays and inconsistencies at the Central Board of Film Certification have persisted for years. 

Koan noted that this is where an agreement could produce visible results: faster and more predictable certification, smoother co-production pathways, and clearer procedural standards. 

These, the report said, are possible without touching structural elements such as TRAI’s price-control framework, which are unlikely to be negotiated away.

Digital trade, another flashpoint, could also see partial convergence. 

The US typically demands unrestricted cross-border data flows and bans on forced localisation, with narrow security and privacy carve-outs.

India’s position is more restrictive, with RBI’s local-storage mandate for payments data, the Digital Personal Data Protection Act’s negative list for restricted jurisdictions, and draft rules proposing tighter compliance for “significant data fiduciaries” and broad executive discretion over outbound transfers.

Koan warned that broad and weakly justified restrictions risk being treated as trade barriers unless tied to necessity and proportionality.

A notable opening has come from Washington itself, with April 2025 outbound data-flow controls for “countries of concern” bringing the US position closer to India’s.

Koan suggested a framework built on necessity-tested exceptions, a refined negative list, and contractual transfer tools such as standard clauses and binding corporate rules.

“The goal would be to recognise equivalent privacy outcomes rather than enforce identical legal regimes, using a modular, opt-in chapter to bank gains without forcing either side into politically unviable concessions,” the think tank said.

Beyond these two areas, the report covers multiple sectors where entrenched positions are unlikely to shift.

Legal and accounting market access remains politically sensitive for India, with bar councils and professional bodies resisting foreign entry. Retail and e-commerce rules are designed to protect domestic players, limit platform dominance and promote local supply chains, making them difficult to dilute in a trade deal.

Financial services present mixed scope for progress. Banking is unlikely to see major change, but insurance and reinsurance offer a plausible reciprocal concession, with mutual recognition of prudential regimes seen as a realistic outcome. On India’s side, key asks include greater certainty in US temporary work visas, more procurement access despite “Buy American” rules, predictable export-control licensing for trusted entities, a social security totalisation agreement, and safeguards against sudden unilateral tariffs.

Koan’s overall assessment is that a narrow package is the only viable route to a deal this year. The most deliverable elements sit in proportionate digital rules and procedural fixes in the audiovisual sector, with additional scope for movement in reinsurance, procurement processes and mobility facilitation. Sweeping reforms in politically sensitive markets, however, remain off the table for now.