TV inflation in India rises YoY; newspaper and online inflation falls: Media inflation report

Media inflation across APAC is predicted to reach 3.6% in 2024, down slightly from 4.3% in 2023, according to ECI Media Management’s 2024 Media Inflation Report.

TV inflation is forecast to be 4.8% in 2024 (versus 3.6% in 2023), while Online Video inflation is expected to be 3.8%. Inflation across other media types is forecast to reach: 3.3% (Online Display); 3.7% (Out of Home); 1.6% (Radio); 0.1% (Newspapers) and -0.2% (Magazines).

Overall media inflation in APAC has remained relatively stable, dropping by just 0.7% in 2024 versus 2023. Online and OOH have fallen compared to their 2023 levels, offsetting rising TV inflation.

China has maintained very stable media inflation in 2024. Online and OOH are all forecast to have inflation of around 4%, higher than the other media types which are all between 0% and 1.5%.

 In India, TV inflation is expected to retain its lead position, with a slight increase versus its 2023 level. Inflation for all other media is predicted to fall, with significant changes for Newspapers and Online.

Japanese TV and Online Display inflation are projected to be inflationary following a spell in deflationary territory in 2022, but Online Video is set to fall slightly. Radio and Print will remain deflationary. Overall inflation is set to shift from deflationary in 2023 to inflationary this year.

Regional media inflation

All media types are forecast to see some level of inflation at a global level. The region with the highest inflation will be Latin America (11.4%), EMEA will see the next highest level of inflation (3.8%), followed by APAC (3.6%) and North America at 1.4%.

In terms of media channels, OOH and online video will see the highest inflation at a global level (both are expected to be 4.2%). They have overtaken TV which had the highest inflation forecast in 2023, but which was downgraded over the course of last year in the wake of the Hollywood strikes. ECI Media Management forecasts that TV inflation will sit at 2.6% globally in 2024, and will be inflationary in all regions except North America.

At a global level, Online Video is forecast to continue to experience higher inflation (at 4.2%) than Online Display (2.6%) thanks mainly to the rising popularity of streaming services. Print is showing some signs of recovery after a difficult 2023, although this recovery is by no means rapid, with Newspapers estimated to have an inflation of 0.7% globally and Magazines 0.1%. Meanwhile, OOH is forecast to see 4.2% inflation globally, while Radio is expected to see 2.4% inflation.

Global media inflation

Fredrik Kinge, Global CEO, ECI Media Management, said, “2024 is set to be a mixed picture in terms of media inflation, with inflationary factors such as national elections and global sporting events offset by circumstances that compel caution, including the ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The overarching theme for ECI Media Management’s media inflation forecast for 2024 is relatively steady inflation at a global level, but with significant exceptions including continued deflation for TV in the US.”

He said, “Media inflation in the Asia Pacific region is notably stable at a regional level, but also in many of the major markets. Online has a heavy weighting investment in the region, which explains its outsize influence on the overall forecast.”

He added, “With such uncertainty in countries across the world at the moment, both politically and because of all the changes we are seeing in the media industry, it’s critical that media investments are focused, precise and transparent, so that brands can be sure that every ad dollar drives higher media value.”

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