Advertising

2020 adex to shrink by 14-18% to Rs 58,000 crore, forecasts Madison in its mid-year review

Adex in the second half of the year to grow between Rs 34,300 and Rs 36,600 crore, up 60-72% from Rs 21,298 crore in H1

BestMediaInfo Bureau

19 Aug 2020 11:40 IST

New Update

2020 adex to shrink by 14-18% to Rs 58,000 crore, forecasts Madison in its mid-year review

Madison Media has predicted that Covid-19 will bring down the overall Indian adex in 2020 to Rs 55,000-58,000 crore, down 14-18% from Rs 67,603 crore in 2019. The 2020 adex will be somewhere between 2017 and 2018 levels.

In H1 2020, adex was only Rs 21,298 crore, a drop of 39% over H1 2019 or Rs 13,812 crore in absolute terms.

Adex is likely to recover in H2 20 and grow at a dramatic rate of 60% to 72% of the collapsed H1, or grow anywhere between 6% to 13% versus H2 19 on the back of the festival season, which Advertisers are sure to take advantage of, after a lean H1, Madison said in its forecast for the full year.

In H2, the adex will grow between Rs 34,300 to Rs 36,600 crore.

Madison mid-year review highlighted that TV and Digital showed early signs of getting back to normalcy and should get back in full form by September or October, aided by the launch of IPL, Bigg Boss and KBC. “H2 Adex will primarily depend on Demand coming back in markets which will depend on sentiment and consumers’ outlook of the immediate future, which in turn will depend on when Govt and private offices are allowed to open and work on regular basis,” it said.

	Yr 2019	H1 2020	H1'2020	H2’20 vs H2’19	H2’20 In Crore	H2’20 vs H1’20	Yr 2020
	Rs Crore	Rs Crore	% De-growth	Projected Growth Range	Range	Proj Growth Range	Projected Growth Range
TV	25291	8084	-43%	16 to 18%	12900 – 14200	60 – 75%	- 12 to - 17%
Digital	15467	6472	-7%	28 to 38%	10800 – 11800	68 – 82%	12 to 18%
Press	20045	5237	-51%	- 8 to - 19%	7500 – 8600	45 – 65%	- 31 to - 36%
Radio	2260	569	-52%	-6 to - 27%	775 – 1000	38 – 78%	- 30 to - 40%
Cinema	1045	176	-52%	-34 to – 64%	240 – 450	38 – 160%	- 40 to -60%
OOH	3495	761	-55%	-16 to – 45 %	950 – 1500	30 – 100%	- 35 to - 50%

TOTAL	67603	21298	-39%	6 to 13%	34300 – 36600	60 – 72%	- 14 to - 18%

Sam Balsara

Sam Balsara, Chairman, Madison World, said, “We are bullish in our forecast for H2 2020. We believe Advertisers will return to Adex in full form by Q4 to take advantage of the festive Season. Enlightened advertisers know that they cannot risk being off Advertising for risk of losing Market Share, since Share lost is expensive to regain. Media owners are well advised to be nimble and flexible with existing Advertisers and spare no effort in helping Local and Regional brands become National Brands and help hitherto unadvertised Brands taste the power of Advertising.”

Figures at a glance:

Indian Advertising Market in Jan - June in Last 3 Years
	H1'18		H1'19		H1'20		Growth %
Medium	In Rs Crore	% Share	In Rs Crore	% Share	In Rs Crore	% Share	2020/19
TV	11890	41%	14199	40%	8084	38%	-43%
Print	9089	31%	10697	30%	5237	25%	-51%
Radio	1002	3%	1182	3%	569	3%	-52%
Cinema	282	1%	366	1%	176	1%	-52%
Outdoor	1616	6%	1706	5%	761	4%	-55%
Total Traditional	23879	82%	28150	80%	14826	70%	-47%
Digital	5384	18%	6960	20%	6472	30%	-7%
Total	29263		35110		21298		-39%

Impact of Covid On Indian Adex in Q2

Indian Advertising Market in AMJ in Last 3 Years
	AMJ'18		AMJ'19		AMJ'20		Growth %
Medium	In Rs Crore	% Share	In Rs Crore	% Share	In Rs Crore	% Share	2020/19
TV	6275	42%	8815	46%	3423	51%	-61%
Print	4934	33%	5830	30%	1217	18%	-79%
Radio	529	4%	566	3%	71	1%	-87%
Cinema	137	1%	157	1%	0	0%	-100%
Outdoor	803	5%	844	4%	8	0%	-99%
Total Traditional	12678	84%	16212	84%	4719	70%	-71%
Digital	2341	16%	3093	16%	2005	30%	-35%
Total	15019		19305		6724		-65%

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Madison 2020 adex