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Lockdown relaxations further push India’s Covid-19 peak to September 3

Latest projections by the Times Fact-India Outbreak Report indicates that India is set to hit a peak of 9.86 lakh active cases on September 3 according to most likely scenario. As per the SEIR model, the peak is projected at 10.15 lakh active cases on September 1

Following the implementation of lockdown relaxations to revive the nation’s economy, several states recorded a surge in cases, which has further pushed India’s COVID-19 peak to September 3. Tracking the coronavirus pandemic in India for the past several months, Times Fact-India Outbreak Report, released its latest projections and highlights that India is set to hit a peak of 9.86 lakh active cases on September 03 according to most likely scenario and as per SEIR model the peak is projected at 10.15 lakh active cases on September 1. The report shows that following India's peak, daily active case counts will decline by November 17, thereby establishing India’s recovery from COVID-19. This was earlier projected to end by mid-October.

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The study shows that the easing of mobility restrictions has led to abandoning of safety protocols and significantly contributing to India’s peak being pushed. A continued failure to practise social distancing could very well skew India's coronavirus curve further to the right and upwards, yielding a higher peak, and more distant end date, indicates the report.

Times Fact-India Outbreak Report: Key takeaways

  1. R0 or the basic reproduction number/rate, for India is slowly going down to 1.63 from 1.69 in last 20 days.
  2. All the major states except Kerala, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi, and Haryana, still shows an upward trend with R0 close to 1.5.
  3. The Southern states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu continue to exhibit worrying COVID-19 trends.
  4. While Mumbai has put the worst behind, the new COVID-19 hotspots are Bengaluru and Pune.
  5. Chennai, Bengaluru, Thane and Pune still shows an upward trend with R0 close to 1.9 and R0 for all other major cities is still above 1.6 but showing a slow downward trend.
  6. Active cases of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have been growing rapidly with 10 and 12 days doubling time respectively.
  7. 31% of the active cases in India is from Maharashtra, however the average growth rate is 3% (7 days average).
  8. The Eastern States including West Bengal could emerge as trouble spots in the event if the trend continues.

Times Fact-India Outbreak Report: State and City Wise Projections For details on the study findings and i

 

Most Likely Model

SEIR Model

States & Cities

Projected Peak Date

Active Cases on peak date

Projected End Date

Projected Peak Date

Active Cases on peak date

Projected End Date

             

 

Maharashtra

14-Aug

191921

26-Oct

14-Aug

201016

23-Sep

Tamil Nadu

24-Aug

68708

17-Oct

24-Aug

76144

08-Oct

Delhi

27-Jun

28329

22-Sep

04-Aug

10010

22-Sep

Kerala

10-Aug

11972

15-Oct

02-Aug

12853

17-Sep

Telangana

15-Aug

15893

17-Oct

07-Aug

14060

17-Sep

Uttar Pradesh

21-Aug

41636

15-Oct

21-Aug

47235

22-Sep

Rajasthan

15-Aug

13021

10-Oct

09-Aug

13148

19-Sep

Andhra Pradesh

23-Aug

116255

28-Oct

19-Aug

123336

15-Oct

Madhya Pradesh

13-Aug

9859

30-Sep

07-Aug

9420

15-Sep

Karnataka

15-Aug

122774

03-Nov

11-Aug

125261

03-Nov

Gujarat

14-Aug

15520

12-Oct

14-Aug

15690

25-Sep

West Bengal

12-Aug

24520

07-Oct

05-Aug

23683

25-Sep

Haryana

17-Aug

7494

20-Sep

10-Aug

7471

09-Sep

Mumbai

23-Jun

29990

12-Oct

23-Jun

29990

24-Sep

Chennai

28-Jul

13955

28-Sep

05-Jul

24891

09-Sep

Ahmadabad

25-May

5681

12-Oct

25-May

5681

08-Sep

Bhopal

02-Sep

3289

30-Sep

05-Aug

2728

21-Sep

Indore

02-Sep

4041

26-Sep

10-Aug

2320

18-Sep

Jaipur

19-Aug

2982

08-Oct

20-Aug

2797

24-Sep

Surat

09-Aug

4568

25-Sep

09-Aug

5252

17-Sep

Pune

10-Aug

59746

28-Oct

10-Aug

69427

17-Sep

Bengaluru

15-Aug

46849

31-Oct

15-Aug

51489

27-Sep

Thane

19-Jul

38389

20-Oct

20-Aug

43206

02-Oct

For details on the study findings and insights, visit - https://www.timesnownews.com/times-facts 

Methodology: Led by insights and efficacy, Times Fact India Outbreak Report a joint endeavour by Times Network and global data and digital consulting firm Protiviti, has achieved an accuracy rate of 96% for active cases for its previous projections. The report showcases several pertinent data points which includes India’s possible peak points, state & city wise projections and active cases over a period of time and report follows a sophisticated and vigorous mathematical modelling. Parsed by reputed data scientists and quantitative experts, Times Fact India Outbreak Report is based on two models, The Time Series Model, which involves factors in data across time periods in other countries affected by Covid-19 in addition to two polynomial regression models adapted to Indian data, and the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) model which is based on an estimation of a reproduction rate of the epidemic. Drawing critical information from central government data, state government bulletins, and daily updates provided by the Health Ministry, the report is a holistic COVID -19 projection for the nation.

Disclaimer: The COVID-19 Pandemic, is rapidly evolving, with new findings and insights being discovered daily. Stories based on the research document contains the observations and conclusions arrived at by Protiviti and Times Network basis the data and information examined and relied. Stories based on this document do not constitute or claim to serve as an advisory for any medical, safety or regulatory action and cannot be referred and relied in any disputes for challenging any other claims, reports, analysis of third parties on similar subject.

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