Clear majority in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh; near majority in Delhi
December 4, 2013:
Chief Minister Shivraj Raj Singh Chouhan is likely to re-gain the crown of Madhya Pradesh: NEWS NATION – C FORE SURVEY
Shiv Raj Singh led BJP is likely to sweep 135 seats in Madhya Pradesh Assembly polls while Congress will have to be satisfied with 84 seats however, while BJP has lost its seat ,Congress has gained compared to last elections. Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) is predicted to lead with a vote share of 39 % followed by Congress with 34 %. BJP have a swing of 1 % in its favour while Congress has a swing of 2 % compared to assembly elections of 2008. Male voting is likely to be skewed towards BJP while female voting is almost evenly balanced. Similarly, urban voter have voted more in favour of BJP than rural as compared to Congress.
| MADHYA PRADESH ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS FORECAST | ||||||
| Party | 2008 Seats | Expected Seats | Swing | 2008 Vote (%) | Expected Vote (%) | Swing % |
| Congress | 71 | 84 | +13 | 32 | 34 | +2 |
| BJP | 143 | 135 | -8 | 38 | 39 | +1 |
| BSP | 7 | 3 | -4 | 9 | 7 | -2 |
| Others / IND | 9 | 8 | -1 | 21 | 20 | -1 |
Shivraj Singh Chouhan voted as the most suitable CM. According to the survey, 46 % of the respondents have rated Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan as most suitable CM but competitive fight was seen with Jyotiradita Scindia with 34 % respondents voting in its favour. An important failure of BJP seemed to be failure to curb corruption while the biggest achievement was Ladli Luxmi Yojana.
Governance of the state and water/electricity were the most important issue.
State subjects like governance, roads, electricity, water, unemployment were the main issues during the elections. 43 % of respondents felt that BJP was more equipped to tackle these problems as compared to 37 % for congress. 53 % of respondents were satisfied with the performance of the State Government while 45 % felt that the existing government government should be given a second chance. 56 % respondents felt that BJP is likely to come to power.
Successfully achieved schemes by Madhya Pradesh government
According to the survey, 46 % respondents felt that ladli laxmi yojna was improved under Shivraj Singh Chouhan while other schemes like electricity, condition of farmers, law & order, employment generation remained largely the same.
BJP likely to come to power in Rajasthan: NEWS NATION – C FORE SURVEY
BJP likely to win 111 seats in Rajasthan polls as 51% are not satisfied with Ashok Gehlot’s tenure as per News Nation & C-Force’s Survey. With a swing of 6% in favour of BJP compared to 2008 elections, BJP is predicted to lead with 40% share of voting.
| RAJASTHAN ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS FORECAST | ||||||
| Party | 2008 Seats | Expected Seats | Swing | 2008 Vote(%) | Expected Vote (%) | Swing (%) |
| Congress | 96 | 73 | -23 | 37 | 35 | -2 |
| BJP | 78 | 111 | +33 | 34 | 40 | +6 |
| BSP | 6 | 3 | -3 | 8 | 6 | -2 |
| Others / IND | 20 | 13 | -7 | 21 | 19 | -2 |
Vasundhra Raje as the suitable CM :
Vasundhra Raje leads in perception as a suitable candidate for CM with 36% of the respondents voting in her favour.
Issues influencing casting of Vote:
Price Rise, corruption and facilities like Water supply constitute the major factors influencing casting of vote. 43% feel that BJP is better suited to tackle issues of Price rise, corruption, water supply etc as there has been little or no development in these issues under Gehlot’s tenure . 47% are not satisfied with the State Government and 49% are not in favour of re-electing the State Government.
Achievements of Rajasthan government
Free medicine/health care, Pension scheme and Food security have been voted as achievements of Ashok Gehlot but unfortunately they do not convert into votes for Congress, according to the survey.37% of the respondents perceive Congress as the most corrupt party, while 32% feel both Congress and BJP are the same in character. 62% feel that BJP will come to power in Rajasthan.
Chief Minister Raman Singh is likely to get the second term in Chhattisgarh: NEWS NATION – C FORE SURVEY
Chief Minister Dr Raman Singh led BJP is likely to retain power in Chhattisgarh after a close fight with Congress. BJP is seen to be getting 46 seats while Congress could get 42 seats. Compared to last elections Congress could gain 4 seats while BJP might lose 4 seats. Female voting was more skewed towards BJP compared to males which was almost evenly balanced. Urban voters show preference towards BJP (58 %) while rural voters are again balanced between Congress (45 %) & BJP (46%).
| CHATTISHGARH ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS FORECAST | ||||||
| Party | 2008 Seats | Expected Seats | Swing | 2008 Vote (%) | Expected Vote (%) | Swing % |
| Congress | 38 | 42 | +4 | 38 | 41 | +3 |
| BJP | 50 | 46 | -4 | 40 | 42 | +2 |
| BSP | 2 | 0 | -2 | 6 | 4 | -2 |
| Others / IND | 0 | 2 | +2 | 16 | 13 | -3 |
Dr. Raman Singh voted as the most suitable CM. According to the survey, 53 % of the respondents have rated Chief Minister Dr Raman Singh as most suitable CM. 39 % respondents felt that Naxals where responsible for Sukma naxal attack on congress envoy in which 28 people killed including V.C. Shukla which might have slightly helped to convert votes in favour of congress .
Price rise seemed to be the most important issue.
As per the survey inflation seemed to be the most important issue with 25 % of respondents voting in its favour. Local issues like water/ electricity and roads/transport were also relevant with 16 % and 10 % respondents voting in its favour. Only 2 % felt that naxalism was one of the important issues. 45 % were in favour of giving the present government a second chance while 56 % felt that BJP is likely to come to power. 44 % people felt that BJP was equipped to handle the above issues compared to 42 % for congress.
Successfully achieved schemes by Chattishgarh government
According to the survey, 45 % respondents felt that 35 kg highly subsidized food grain scheme execution has improved while other issues like electricity, condition of farmers, law & order remained largely same. 47 % respondents were satisfied with the performance of present government.
Delhi heads towards a hung assembly: NEWS NATION – C FORE SURVEY
Delhi will have a hung assembly predicts News Nation C –Fore survey. The new entrant in the Delhi’s political scenario the Aam Admi Party (AAP) will emerge as cropper gaining 14 seats. While BJP and APP is predicted to gain 11 and 14 seats respectively, the ruling Congress might lose 20 seats. Shiela Dixits still continues to be one of the favourites for CM’s post with 36 % respondents felling that Congress is better for development of Delhi.
| DELHI ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS FORECAST | ||||||
| Party | 2008 Seats | Expected Seats | Swing | 2008 Vote (%) | Expected Vote (%) | Swing % |
| Congress | 43 | 20 | -23 | 40 | 30 | -10 |
| BJP | 23 | 34 | +11 | 36 | 32 | -4 |
| AAP | - | 14 | +14 | - | 25 | +25 |
| Others/BSP / IND | 4 | 2 | -2 | 24 | 13 | -11 |
Arvind Kejriwal voted as most suitable CM by a narrow margin over Shiela Dixit. According to the survey, 31 % of the respondents have rated Arvind Khejrewal as the most suitable for CM’s post. Sheila Dixit emerged as a strong number 2 with 30 % response while BJP’s CM candidate was preferred by 15 % of respondents.35 % respondent felt that congress is likely to win in their constituency but BJP followed very closely with 34 % while 28 % voted in favour of AAP.
Price rise seemed to be the most important issue.
As per the survey price rise inflation seemed to be the most important issue with 33 % of respondents voting in its favour. Local issues like drinking water, women safety and electricity prices were also relevant with 16 %, 12 % and 10 % respondents voting in its favour. 66 % of respondents were not happy with present government’s performance which reflected at national level also with 65 % respondents not happy with UPA government either.
The post poll survey was conducted by News Nation – C Fore immediately after the election process was completed in the state. Voters who had actually voted were interviewed using a structured questionnaire from Assembly constituencies of the state.
