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CNN-IBN – The Week Post Poll survey predicts clean sweep for BJP

Releases post poll survey for Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan December 4, 2013: cnn-ibn-post-poll-survey-exit-poll               CHHATTISGARH SEAT PROJECTION 2013            2008 BJP    45-55           (50) CONG  32-40           (38) OTH    1-7               (2) CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL STUDY PROJECTS 42% VOTE SHARE FOR BJP IN CHHATTISGARH CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL STUDY PROJECTS 38% VOTE SHARE FOR CONG IN CHHATTISGARH POST-POLL STUDY ESTIMATES BJP MAY SECURE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 SEATS IN CHHATTISGARH POST-POLL STUDY ESTIMATES CONG MAY SECURE BETWEEN 32 AND 40 SEATS IN CHHATTISGARH A massive 81% respondents say they are satisfied with the BJP Govt in Chhattisgarh 46% respondents name Raman Singh as preferred choice for Chhattisgarh CM 21% respondents name Cong’s Ajit Jogi as preferred choice for Chhattisgarh CM   MADHYA PRADESH   SEAT PROJECTION 2013                 2008 BJP     136-146       (143) CONG  67-77           (71) OTH    13-21           (16) CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES BJP MAY GET 41% VOTE SHARE IN MADHYA PRADESH CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES CONG MAY GET 35% VOTE SHARE IN MADHYA PRADESH CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES BJP MAY GET BETWEEN 136 AND 146 SEATS IN MP CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES CONG MAY GET BETWEEN 67 AND 77 SEATS IN MP 72% respondents say they are satisfied with the BJP Govt in Madhya Pradesh 74% respondents say they are satisfied with Shivraj Singh Chouhan as MP chief minister Among options for preferred MP CM, 45% back Shivraj Singh; 26% prefer Jyotiraditya Scindia   RAJASTHAN   SEAT PROJECTION 2013            2008 BJP     126-136       (78) CONG  49-57           (96) OTH    12-20           (26) CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES 9% GAIN FOR BJP IN RAJASTHAN, MAY SECURE 43% VOTE SHARE CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES 4% DROP FOR CONG IN RAJASTHAN, MAY SECURE 33% VOTE SHARE CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES BJP MAY SECURE BETWEEN 126 AND 136 SEATS IN RAJASTHAN CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES CONG MAY SECURE BETWEEN 49 AND 57 SEATS IN RAJASTHAN Gehlot Govt’s satisfaction level drops to 56% as opposed to 68% of Vasundhara in 2008 50% respondents say ruling Gehlot Govt does not deserve another chance in Rajasthan 49% respondents say they prefer Vasundhara Raje as Rajasthan CM; only 27% prefer Gehlot - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - MAJOR FINDINGS OF THE SURVEY CHHATTISGARH CHHATTISGARH VOTE SHARE 2013  Change           2008 BJP       42%      +1.7       40.3% CONG    38%      -0.6       38.6% BSP       5%        -1.1       6.1% OTH      15%        0         15%   Pro incumbency in Chhattisgarh stronger than 2008 according to survey
Should the ruling State govt.get another chance? 2008BJP govt. 2013BJP govt.
Yes 51 55
No 26 31
Can’t say/No opinion 23 14
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is 1629. Weighted data.   Satisfaction with BJP govt.’s performance greater than what it was five years ago
Satisfaction level with StateGovernment’s performance 2008BJP govt. 2013BJP govt.
Satisfied 72 81
Dissatisfied 14 15
Can’t say/No opinion 14 4
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is1629. Weighted data.   Satisfaction with Raman Singh’s work as chief minister also continues to be very high
Satisfaction level withCM’s performance 2008 2013
Satisfied 75 82
Dissatisfied 12 14
Can’t say/No opinion 13 4
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is 1629. Weighted data.   Raman Singh most preferred choice for CM, leads Jogi even among STs and SCs
Chief Minister preference(open ended question) Overall ST SC OBCs
Raman Singh 46 41 33 53
Ajit Jogi 21 24 29 18
Charandas Mahant 3 2 4 3
Others 12 10 18 11
Can’t say 18 23 16 15
Note: All figures are in percent; Sample size for overall is 1629. Weighted data.   Methodology of Post Poll Survey
Survey method
Time period when survey was conducted Nov 13 to Nov 19Nov 20 to Nov 26
Number of Assembly Constituencies surveyed 25
Number of Polling Stations surveyed 97
Number of respondents targeted 2000
Total respondents achieved (Sample size) 1629
Note: The survey could not be conducted in three polling stations as planned - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - MADHYA PRADESH MADHYA PRADESH VOTE SHARE 2013     Change             2008 BJP       41%      +3.4                  37.6% CONG    35%      +2.6                  32.4% BSP       9%           0                   9% OTH      15%        -6                   21%   Pro incumbency sentiment weakens somewhat but still quite high
Should the ruling State govt.get another chance? 2008BJP govt. 2013BJP govt.
Yes 56 48
No 24 27
Can’t say/No opinion 20 25
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1555; Sample size in 2013 is 2829; Weighted data.   Satisfaction with the BJP govt. nearly as high as it was in 2008
Satisfaction level with StateGovernment’s performance 2008BJP govt. 2013BJP govt.
Satisfied 76 72
Dissatisfied 15 18
Can’t say/No opinion 9 10
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1555; Sample size in 2013 is 2829 ; Weighted data..   High satisfaction with Chouhan’s work continues, drops marginally
Satisfaction level withCM’s performance 2008Chouhan 2013Chouhan
Satisfied 81 74
Dissatisfied 13 18
Can’t say/No opinion 6 8
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1555; Sample size in 2013 is 2829. Weighted data.   Jyotiraditya Scindia no match for Shivraj Singh Chouhan; only leads among Muslims and narrows gap among OBCs
Chief Minister preference(open ended question) Overall Upper castes OBC SC ST Muslims
Shivraj Singh Chouhan 45 54 41 38 46 18
Jyotiraditya Scindia 26 18 30 23 29 48
Digvijay Singh 3 2 4 2 2 9
Kailash Vijayvargiya 2 2 2 3 2 2
Note: All figures are in percent; the rest gave other preferences or did not answer; Sample size for overall is 2829. Weighted data.   Methodology of Post Poll Survey
Survey details
Time period when survey was conducted Nov 26 - Dec 1 2013
Number of Assembly Constituencies surveyed 35
Number of Polling Stations surveyed 140
Number of respondents sampled 4900
Number of respondents targeted from the sample 3500
Total respondents achieved (Sample size) 2829
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - RAJASTHAN RAJASTHAN VOTE SHARE 2013     Change      2008 CONG    33%      -3.8                36.8% BJP       43%      +8.7                34.3% BSP       5%         -2.6                7.6% OTH      19%      -2.3                21.4% Strong anti-incumbency against the Gehlot government
Should the ruling State govt.get another chance? 2008BJP govt. 2013INC  govt.
Yes 42 31
No 36 50
Can’t say/No opinion 22 19
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1573; Sample size in 2013 is 2976; Weighted data. Satisfaction with Cong govt much less than what it was with the BJP govt in 2008
Satisfaction level with StateGovernment’s performance 2008BJP govt. 2013INC govt.
Satisfied 68 56
Dissatisfied 23 38
Can’t say/No opinion 9 6
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1573; Sample size in 2013 is 2976; Weighted data..   Satisfaction with Gehlot as CM much less than what the satisfaction was with Raje as CM in 2008
Satisfaction level withCM’s performance 2008Raje 2013Gehlot
Satisfied 70 56
Dissatisfied 22 37
Can’t say/No opinion 8 7
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1573; Sample size in 2013 is 2976. Weighted data.   Raje way ahead of Gehlot as preferred choice for CM
Chief Minister preference(open ended question) Post Poll 2008 Post Poll2013
Vasundhara Raje 39 49
Ashok Gehlot 31 27
CP Joshi 3 2
Sachin Pilot 0 1
Kirori Lal Meena 1 5
Others 10 5
Can’t say 16 11
Note: All figures are in percent; Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1573; Sample size in 2013 is 2976. Weighted data. Methodology of Post Poll Survey
Survey details
Time period when survey was conducted Dec 1 – Dec 3 2013
Number of Assembly Constituencies surveyed 50
Number of Polling Stations surveyed 150
Number of respondents sampled 5250
Number of respondents targeted from the sample 3750
Total respondents achieved (Sample size) 2976
Note: Data for one polling station not available at the time of preparing the report PR@BestMediaInfo.com
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