CNN-IBN – The Week Post Poll survey predicts clean sweep for BJP
Releases post poll survey for Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan
December 4, 2013:
CHHATTISGARH
SEAT PROJECTION
2013 2008
BJP 45-55 (50)
CONG 32-40 (38)
OTH 1-7 (2)
CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL STUDY PROJECTS 42% VOTE SHARE FOR BJP IN CHHATTISGARH
CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL STUDY PROJECTS 38% VOTE SHARE FOR CONG IN CHHATTISGARH
POST-POLL STUDY ESTIMATES BJP MAY SECURE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 SEATS IN CHHATTISGARH
POST-POLL STUDY ESTIMATES CONG MAY SECURE BETWEEN 32 AND 40 SEATS IN CHHATTISGARH
A massive 81% respondents say they are satisfied with the BJP Govt in Chhattisgarh
46% respondents name Raman Singh as preferred choice for Chhattisgarh CM
21% respondents name Cong's Ajit Jogi as preferred choice for Chhattisgarh CM
MADHYA PRADESH
SEAT PROJECTION
2013 2008
BJP 136-146 (143)
CONG 67-77 (71)
OTH 13-21 (16)
CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES BJP MAY GET 41% VOTE SHARE IN MADHYA PRADESH
CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES CONG MAY GET 35% VOTE SHARE IN MADHYA PRADESH
CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES BJP MAY GET BETWEEN 136 AND 146 SEATS IN MP
CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES CONG MAY GET BETWEEN 67 AND 77 SEATS IN MP
72% respondents say they are satisfied with the BJP Govt in Madhya Pradesh
74% respondents say they are satisfied with Shivraj Singh Chouhan as MP chief minister
Among options for preferred MP CM, 45% back Shivraj Singh; 26% prefer Jyotiraditya Scindia
RAJASTHAN
SEAT PROJECTION
2013 2008
BJP 126-136 (78)
CONG 49-57 (96)
OTH 12-20 (26)
CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES 9% GAIN FOR BJP IN RAJASTHAN, MAY SECURE 43% VOTE SHARE
CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES 4% DROP FOR CONG IN RAJASTHAN, MAY SECURE 33% VOTE SHARE
CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES BJP MAY SECURE BETWEEN 126 AND 136 SEATS IN RAJASTHAN
CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES CONG MAY SECURE BETWEEN 49 AND 57 SEATS IN RAJASTHAN
Gehlot Govt's satisfaction level drops to 56% as opposed to 68% of Vasundhara in 2008
50% respondents say ruling Gehlot Govt does not deserve another chance in Rajasthan
49% respondents say they prefer Vasundhara Raje as Rajasthan CM; only 27% prefer Gehlot
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MAJOR FINDINGS OF THE SURVEY
CHHATTISGARH
CHHATTISGARH VOTE SHARE
2013 Change 2008
BJP 42% +1.7 40.3%
CONG 38% -0.6 38.6%
BSP 5% -1.1 6.1%
OTH 15% 0 15%
Pro incumbency in Chhattisgarh stronger than 2008 according to survey
Should the ruling State govt.get another chance? | 2008BJP govt. | 2013BJP govt. |
Yes | 51 | 55 |
No | 26 | 31 |
Can't say/No opinion | 23 | 14 |
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is 1629. Weighted data.
Satisfaction with BJP govt.'s performance greater than what it was five years ago
Satisfaction level with StateGovernment's performance | 2008BJP govt. | 2013BJP govt. |
Satisfied | 72 | 81 |
Dissatisfied | 14 | 15 |
Can't say/No opinion | 14 | 4 |
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is1629. Weighted data.
Satisfaction with Raman Singh's work as chief minister also continues to be very high
Satisfaction level withCM's performance | 2008 | 2013 |
Satisfied | 75 | 82 |
Dissatisfied | 12 | 14 |
Can't say/No opinion | 13 | 4 |
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is 1629. Weighted data.
Raman Singh most preferred choice for CM, leads Jogi even among STs and SCs
Chief Minister preference(open ended question) | Overall | ST | SC | OBCs |
Raman Singh | 46 | 41 | 33 | 53 |
Ajit Jogi | 21 | 24 | 29 | 18 |
Charandas Mahant | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Others | 12 | 10 | 18 | 11 |
Can't say | 18 | 23 | 16 | 15 |
Note: All figures are in percent; Sample size for overall is 1629. Weighted data.
Methodology of Post Poll Survey
Survey method | |
Time period when survey was conducted | Nov 13 to Nov 19Nov 20 to Nov 26 |
Number of Assembly Constituencies surveyed | 25 |
Number of Polling Stations surveyed | 97 |
Number of respondents targeted | 2000 |
Total respondents achieved (Sample size) | 1629 |
Note: The survey could not be conducted in three polling stations as planned
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MADHYA PRADESH
MADHYA PRADESH VOTE SHARE
2013 Change 2008
BJP 41% +3.4 37.6%
CONG 35% +2.6 32.4%
BSP 9% 0 9%
OTH 15% -6 21%
Pro incumbency sentiment weakens somewhat but still quite high
Should the ruling State govt.get another chance? | 2008BJP govt. | 2013BJP govt. |
Yes | 56 | 48 |
No | 24 | 27 |
Can't say/No opinion | 20 | 25 |
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1555; Sample size in 2013 is 2829; Weighted data.
Satisfaction with the BJP govt. nearly as high as it was in 2008
Satisfaction level with StateGovernment's performance | 2008BJP govt. | 2013BJP govt. |
Satisfied | 76 | 72 |
Dissatisfied | 15 | 18 |
Can't say/No opinion | 9 | 10 |
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1555; Sample size in 2013 is 2829 ; Weighted data..
High satisfaction with Chouhan's work continues, drops marginally
Satisfaction level withCM's performance | 2008Chouhan | 2013Chouhan |
Satisfied | 81 | 74 |
Dissatisfied | 13 | 18 |
Can't say/No opinion | 6 | 8 |
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1555; Sample size in 2013 is 2829. Weighted data.
Jyotiraditya Scindia no match for Shivraj Singh Chouhan; only leads among Muslims and narrows gap among OBCs
Chief Minister preference(open ended question) | Overall | Upper castes | OBC | SC | ST | Muslims |
Shivraj Singh Chouhan | 45 | 54 | 41 | 38 | 46 | 18 |
Jyotiraditya Scindia | 26 | 18 | 30 | 23 | 29 | 48 |
Digvijay Singh | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
Kailash Vijayvargiya | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Note: All figures are in percent; the rest gave other preferences or did not answer; Sample size for overall is 2829. Weighted data.
Methodology of Post Poll Survey
Survey details | |
Time period when survey was conducted | Nov 26 - Dec 1 2013 |
Number of Assembly Constituencies surveyed | 35 |
Number of Polling Stations surveyed | 140 |
Number of respondents sampled | 4900 |
Number of respondents targeted from the sample | 3500 |
Total respondents achieved (Sample size) | 2829 |
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RAJASTHAN
RAJASTHAN VOTE SHARE
2013 Change 2008
CONG 33% -3.8 36.8%
BJP 43% +8.7 34.3%
BSP 5% -2.6 7.6%
OTH 19% -2.3 21.4%
Strong anti-incumbency against the Gehlot government
Should the ruling State govt.get another chance? | 2008BJP govt. | 2013INC govt. |
Yes | 42 | 31 |
No | 36 | 50 |
Can't say/No opinion | 22 | 19 |
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1573; Sample size in 2013 is 2976; Weighted data.
Satisfaction with Cong govt much less than what it was with the BJP govt in 2008
Satisfaction level with StateGovernment's performance | 2008BJP govt. | 2013INC govt. |
Satisfied | 68 | 56 |
Dissatisfied | 23 | 38 |
Can't say/No opinion | 9 | 6 |
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1573; Sample size in 2013 is 2976; Weighted data..
Satisfaction with Gehlot as CM much less than what the satisfaction was with Raje as CM in 2008
Satisfaction level withCM's performance | 2008Raje | 2013Gehlot |
Satisfied | 70 | 56 |
Dissatisfied | 22 | 37 |
Can't say/No opinion | 8 | 7 |
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1573; Sample size in 2013 is 2976. Weighted data.
Raje way ahead of Gehlot as preferred choice for CM
Chief Minister preference(open ended question) | Post Poll 2008 | Post Poll2013 |
Vasundhara Raje | 39 | 49 |
Ashok Gehlot | 31 | 27 |
CP Joshi | 3 | 2 |
Sachin Pilot | 0 | 1 |
Kirori Lal Meena | 1 | 5 |
Others | 10 | 5 |
Can't say | 16 | 11 |
Note: All figures are in percent; Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1573; Sample size in 2013 is 2976. Weighted data.
Methodology of Post Poll Survey
Survey details | |
Time period when survey was conducted | Dec 1 – Dec 3 2013 |
Number of Assembly Constituencies surveyed | 50 |
Number of Polling Stations surveyed | 150 |
Number of respondents sampled | 5250 |
Number of respondents targeted from the sample | 3750 |
Total respondents achieved (Sample size) | 2976 |
Note: Data for one polling station not available at the time of preparing the report