CNN-IBN – The Week Post Poll survey predicts clean sweep for BJP

Releases post poll survey for Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan

December 4, 2013:

CHHATTISGARH

SEAT PROJECTION

2013            2008

BJP    45-55           (50)

CONG  32-40           (38)

OTH    1-7               (2)

CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL STUDY PROJECTS 42% VOTE SHARE FOR BJP IN CHHATTISGARH

CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL STUDY PROJECTS 38% VOTE SHARE FOR CONG IN CHHATTISGARH

POST-POLL STUDY ESTIMATES BJP MAY SECURE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 SEATS IN CHHATTISGARH

POST-POLL STUDY ESTIMATES CONG MAY SECURE BETWEEN 32 AND 40 SEATS IN CHHATTISGARH

A massive 81% respondents say they are satisfied with the BJP Govt in Chhattisgarh

46% respondents name Raman Singh as preferred choice for Chhattisgarh CM

21% respondents name Cong's Ajit Jogi as preferred choice for Chhattisgarh CM

MADHYA PRADESH

SEAT PROJECTION

2013                 2008

BJP     136-146       (143)

CONG  67-77           (71)

OTH    13-21           (16)

CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES BJP MAY GET 41% VOTE SHARE IN MADHYA PRADESH

CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES CONG MAY GET 35% VOTE SHARE IN MADHYA PRADESH

CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES BJP MAY GET BETWEEN 136 AND 146 SEATS IN MP

CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES CONG MAY GET BETWEEN 67 AND 77 SEATS IN MP

72% respondents say they are satisfied with the BJP Govt in Madhya Pradesh

74% respondents say they are satisfied with Shivraj Singh Chouhan as MP chief minister

Among options for preferred MP CM, 45% back Shivraj Singh; 26% prefer Jyotiraditya Scindia

RAJASTHAN

SEAT PROJECTION

2013            2008

BJP     126-136       (78)

CONG  49-57           (96)

OTH    12-20           (26)

CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES 9% GAIN FOR BJP IN RAJASTHAN, MAY SECURE 43% VOTE SHARE

CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES 4% DROP FOR CONG IN RAJASTHAN, MAY SECURE 33% VOTE SHARE

CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES BJP MAY SECURE BETWEEN 126 AND 136 SEATS IN RAJASTHAN

CNN IBN-THE WEEK POST-POLL ESTIMATES CONG MAY SECURE BETWEEN 49 AND 57 SEATS IN RAJASTHAN

Gehlot Govt's satisfaction level drops to 56% as opposed to 68% of Vasundhara in 2008

50% respondents say ruling Gehlot Govt does not deserve another chance in Rajasthan

49% respondents say they prefer Vasundhara Raje as Rajasthan CM; only 27% prefer Gehlot

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MAJOR FINDINGS OF THE SURVEY

CHHATTISGARH

CHHATTISGARH VOTE SHARE

2013  Change           2008

BJP       42%      +1.7       40.3%

CONG    38%      -0.6       38.6%

BSP       5%        -1.1       6.1%

OTH      15%        0         15%

Pro incumbency in Chhattisgarh stronger than 2008 according to survey

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is 1629. Weighted data.

Satisfaction with BJP govt.'s performance greater than what it was five years ago

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is1629. Weighted data.

Satisfaction with Raman Singh's work as chief minister also continues to be very high

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is 1629. Weighted data.

Raman Singh most preferred choice for CM, leads Jogi even among STs and SCs

Note: All figures are in percent; Sample size for overall is 1629. Weighted data.

Methodology of Post Poll Survey

Note: The survey could not be conducted in three polling stations as planned

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MADHYA PRADESH

MADHYA PRADESH VOTE SHARE

2013     Change             2008

BJP       41%      +3.4                  37.6%

CONG    35%      +2.6                  32.4%

BSP       9%           0                   9%

OTH      15%        -6                   21%

Pro incumbency sentiment weakens somewhat but still quite high

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1555; Sample size in 2013 is 2829; Weighted data.

Satisfaction with the BJP govt. nearly as high as it was in 2008

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1555; Sample size in 2013 is 2829 ; Weighted data..

High satisfaction with Chouhan's work continues, drops marginally

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1555; Sample size in 2013 is 2829. Weighted data.

Jyotiraditya Scindia no match for Shivraj Singh Chouhan; only leads among Muslims and narrows gap among OBCs

Note: All figures are in percent; the rest gave other preferences or did not answer; Sample size for overall is 2829. Weighted data.

Methodology of Post Poll Survey

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RAJASTHAN

RAJASTHAN VOTE SHARE

2013     Change      2008

CONG    33%      -3.8                36.8%

BJP       43%      +8.7                34.3%

BSP       5%         -2.6                7.6%

OTH      19%      -2.3                21.4%

Strong anti-incumbency against the Gehlot government

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1573; Sample size in 2013 is 2976; Weighted data.

Satisfaction with Cong govt much less than what it was with the BJP govt in 2008

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1573; Sample size in 2013 is 2976; Weighted data..

Satisfaction with Gehlot as CM much less than what the satisfaction was with Raje as CM in 2008

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1573; Sample size in 2013 is 2976. Weighted data.

Raje way ahead of Gehlot as preferred choice for CM

Note: All figures are in percent; Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1573; Sample size in 2013 is 2976. Weighted data.

Methodology of Post Poll Survey

Note: Data for one polling station not available at the time of preparing the report

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