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CNN-IBN-The Week-CSDS Post Poll Survey for Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Kerala

  • Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK alliance moves ahead of DMK+ in Tamil Nadu; likely to secure majority
  • Mamata Banerjee set to secure 3/4th majority in West Bengal assembly; Left heads for its worst ever performance in three decades
  • Congress likely to return to power in Assam; Gogoi remains preferred choice for chief minister’s job
  • Left Front marginally ahead in Kerala, but verdict too close to call

May 10, 2011:

A post poll survey conducted by CSDS for CNN-IBN and The Week in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal and Assam has thrown up some dramatic findings which buck the conventional outcomes.

The survey suggests a tight finish in Kerala, with the Left Democratic Front marginally ahead of the Cong-led United Democratic Front. In Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK alliance too appears to be ahead of the DMK+ in the race for the Tamil Nadu Assembly.

The CNN IBN-The Week-CSDS post poll survey also suggests the Tarun Gogoi led Congress government is set to return to power in Assam. In West Bengal, however, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool alliance is set to sweep the state with over 3/4th majority.

Tamil Nadu:

Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK alliance moves ahead of DMK+ in Tamil Nadu; likely to secure majority

The CNN IBN-The Week-CSDS Post Poll survey suggests AIADMK supremo Jayalalithaa may have pipped the DMK alliance in the race for the assembly. Her alliance is likely to secure a majority by bagging between 120 and 132 seats in 234 seat assembly. The DMK alliance is projected to end up with a seat tally between 102 and 114 seats.

Even in individual popularity ratings, the post poll survey establishes Jayalalithaa for the first time has moved ahead of K Karunanidhi in individual popularity ratings and she has taken a five per cent lead over the DMK patriarch.

The survey suggests Jayalalithaa’s alliance with Vijayakanth seems to be have helped her draw the young voters to her fold across the state with the DMK losing voters across age groups across the state.

Ironically, while the voters appeared satisfies with the governance, the survey suggests perceptions of corruption and nepotism has hurt the DMK in its campaign.

Seat Projections for Tamil Nadu

DMK+ 102-114
ADMK+ 120-132

Vote shares

2006 (Actual) 2011 (Estimate)
DMK+ 45 44
ADMK+ 40 46
BJP Front 2 3
Others 13 7

ADMK+ leading and gaining among women voters

DMK+ ADMK+
2006 2011 2006 2011
Men 48 45 38 45
Women 46 43 44 48

AIADMK+ doing well among younger voters

DMK+ ADMK+
2006 2011 2006 2011
18- 25 yrs 42 40 38 49
26-35years 45 45 40 45

Assam:

Congress likely to return to power in Assam; Gogoi remains preferred choice for chief minister’s job

The CNN IBN-The Week-CSDS Post Poll survey suggests the Tarun Gogoi led Congress is set to come back to power in the state with their seat tally likely to be between 64 and 72 seats in the 126 seat assembly. Tarun Gogoi was the most preferred choice for the chief minister’s post even as about 63 per cent people saying they were satisfied with the government’s performance in the state.

Interestingly, 51 per cent of the respondents said they believed the government had succeeded in reducing the insurgency problem even as 65 per cent said development has improved in the last five years.

Vote-shares

2006 (Actual) 2011 (Estimate)
Congress 31 36
BJP 12 9
AGP 20 18
AIUDF 9 13
Others 28 24

Who would you prefer as the next Chief Minister of Assam?

2011
Tarun Gogoi 37
Brindaban Goswami 3
Prafulla Kumar Mahanta 8
Himanata Biswa Sharma 5
Badruddin Ajmal 8
Chandramohan Patowary 4

Tarun Gogoi’s popularity over the years

2001 2004 2006 2011
Those wanting him as CM 20 37 32 37

Has the Cong govt succeeded in reducing the insurgency problem?

%
Yes 51
No 22
Can’t say 27

Do you think overall development of the state over the last five years have improved or deteriorated?

Development has… %
Improved 65
Deteriorated 19

Kerala:

Left Front marginally ahead in Kerala, but verdict too close to call

The CNN IBN-The Week-CSDS Post Poll Survey suggests the Left Front is marginally ahead of the Congress led UDF alliance in the state with the ruling front likely to bag between 69 to 77 seats in 140 seat assembly. The Congress led UDF’s tally is likely to be between 63 to 71 seats.

The key findings of the poll suggest VS Achuthanandan was the most preferred choice for the chief minister with the CM’s popularity going up by three per cent over 2006. A controversial issue related to the Achuthanandan’s age too threw up key findings with the survey suggesting 68 per cent of the LDF supporters saying he wasn’t too old to be the CM. Interestingly, 42 per cent of the UDF supporters too said he is not too old to be the chief minister.

VOTE SHARE ESTIMATES (IN %)

2006 (ACTUAL) 2011 (ESTIMATES)
LDF 49% 46
UDF 43 45
BJP 5 6
OTHERS 4 3

IS ACHUTHANANDAN TOO OLD TO BE THE CHIEF MINISTER

SUPPORTER NO YES
LDF 68% 25%
UDF 42 43
NEUTRAL 52 31

MOST PREFFERD CM, 2001- 2011

2001 2004 2006 2011
A.K Antony 33% 32% 5% 3%
Oommen Chandy -- -- 31 25
V.S. Achuthanandan 15 25 35 38
Pinarayi Vijayan -- -- 3 2
K.karunakaran 13 7 -- --
E.K  Nayanar 20 8 -- --

PUBLIC OPINION ON THE MAJOR CONTROVERSIES

Event % heard about it Reaction to how the government handled the issue
Handled well Handled poorly
Sabarimala stampede 86% 49% 23%
Munnar evictions 81 48 20
Smart city project 71 41 17

AWARENESS OF SCAMS

SCAM AWARE
Lottery scam 82%
Common wealth games 71
Ice cream parlour scandal 85
2G telecom scam 67
Idamalayar dam corruption case 72
SNC Lavalin case 76

ASSESMENT OF THE WORK DONE BY THE UDF AND LDF GOVERNMENTS

UDF 2006 LDF 2011
Satisfied 52% 65%
Dissatisfied 37 24

West Bengal

Mamata Banerjee set to secure 3/4th majority in West Bengal assembly; Left heads for its worst ever performance in three decades

The CNN IBN-The Week-CSDS Post Poll Survey has suggested a complete sweep by the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress with the alliance set to bag between 222 and 234 seats in the 294 seat assembly. The poll also suggests the Left Front heading for its worst ever performance in three decades with the Front likely to secure between 60 and 72 seats.

The survey also suggests 45 per cent of the voters prefer Mamata Banerjee as the chief minister with only 30 per cent preferring Buddhadeb as the chief minister. The survey also suggests a steep drop of 15 per cent in the satisfaction levels for the Left Front government.

The post poll survey also suggests the electorate has rated the Left Front government’s handling of the multiples crises and incidents in Nandigram, Singur and Lalgarh very poorly. The combination of these factors appears to have contributed to the Left returning with its lowest tally of vote share ever in the state.

Huge fall in vote share of Left Front.

2006 (Actual) 2011(Estimates)
Left 50 40
Trinamool Congress+ 41 50
others 9 10

Lowest vote share of Left in the last three decades.

Year Left Front vote  in %
1977 46
1982 53
1987 52
1991 49
1996 49
2001 49
2006 50
2011 40 (Estimated)

Bengal wants Paribartan.

2006 2011
No more chance to Left Govt. 30 48
Yes, Another Chance for Left Govt. 52 38

Note – Rest is Don’t know. All figures in percentage.

Satisfaction with the Left Front Govt. has gone drastically down

Satisfaction with the work done by Left Front Govt… 2006 2011
Satisfied 64 49
Dissatisfied 26 37

Note - Rest is Don’t know. All figures in percentage.

Sharpest decline for the Left in top & bottom sections

2006 2011 Loss since 2006
Rural Upper 48 36 -12
Rural Poor 54 41 -13
Urban Upper 53 35 -18
Urban Poor 52 36 -16

Note - All figures in percentage. Figures of 2006 are based on a similar post poll survey carried out by CSDS.

PR@BestMediaInfo.com

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Comments (4)
  • rajesh- 8 years ago

    i completely disagree with your results on kerala and tamilnadu...... its going to ba a landslide victory for UDF in kerala... and in tamilnadu octegenerian and DMK partiarch Karuna will win in a hairscale difference.. I think his governance and the sympathy towards his age will swing in his favour.....

  • MK DAMODARA- 8 years ago

    Findings of the post-poll surveys have come out.It is quite interesting to see that the conclusions from the surveys and my numerological predictions are similar! 1)On June 2,2010,I wrote in my blog as follows:- Mamata Banerjee was born in the Zodiacal Sign of capricorn ruled by number 8.If she becomes the next CM of West Bengal,she will be the 8th person to occupy the post. On January 6,2011 I again wrote: MAMATA BANERJEE was born on January 5,1955.Her fate number is 8.Her zodiacal Sign is Capricorn ruled by number 8. Her extra-ordinary will-power,simplicity and solidarity with common people are attributed to number 8. If the CPM is ousted in the coming assembly election,the next Chief Minister will be the 8th person to be the Chief Minister of West Bengal.So,Mamata's chance is much brighter! 2)On January 8,2011,February 24,2011 I predicted that Jaya will emerge victorious and be the next-27th CM(the write-ups were very elaborate and,hence,not reproduced again). 3)On March 28,2011 I wrote as follows: Number 13 was lucky for Vajpayee and BJP.The coming Kerala assembly election is for the formation of the 13th Assemmbly.on April 6,the BJP turns 31.See the co-relation between 13 and 31.Both adds up to 4.The year 2011 adds up to 4.As per the horoscope of BJP it is now in the 4th dasa.The party ruled the centre for 6 years during the period of Venus ruled by 6.Also,the birth number of BJP is 6.The present period of BJP is that of the planet SUN.It indicates that there is a slight possibility of the BJP opening the account in the 13th Assembly election! 3)That Oommen Chandy is lucky 13 was unambiguously stated by me.It was published in my blogs.The New Indian EXPRESS carried my article under the headline"CHANDY'S LUCK IS RUNNING HIGH" on March 31,2011.The IANS News agency carried a news item on April 14 under the headline"IT COULD BE LUCKY 13 FOR SOME KERALA POLITICIANS".Still,as far as the prediction related to kerala, I have-to be frank-not made an unambiguous prediction.Also,I have susequently written a blog on April 12,2011 as follows:- The 5th Kerala assembly election conducted in the year 1977 was unique.It was the only election after which the ruling party was returned to power.At the time of election,Achutha Menon was the CM.Karunakaran was the Home minister.But,Achutha Menon was not a candidate.In the present election time,Achuthanandan is the CM and also a candidate.Both the names begin with"A".Also,see the similarity between "Karunakaran" and present Home Minister "Kodiyeri"! The present year is 2011.The last two digits give 11.Seven times 11 is 77.The 13th assembly election is after 34 years from the 5th one(3+4=7). It was the 7th government that assumed office after the 1977 election.After the 2011 election ,the 21st govt will assume office(7X3=21). After the 1977 election Karunakaran was sworn in as CM.He was the 5th man to be CM and he headed the 7th ministry.If a new person become the next CM,he will be the 12th person to be CM(7+5=12) and he will head the 21st ministry(14+7=21).The election of the year 1977 gave 4 chief ministers.That is also a record.Also,the next assembly election had to be conducted within 3 years.If past events are any indication,it can be presumed that the next CM will not complete full term! Again,frankly,I am a little bit confused-as far as kerala is concerned. In Kerala no person has continuously become CM ,immediately following two consecutive elections.As such VS Achuthanandan's chance of becoming CM again is remote.If he becomes CM again,that will be a new record in Kerala politics.Further,it will provide a new idea to me in my numerological pursuit! Conclusion:-Predictions should not be vague.I fully stand by my predictions about Mamata,Jaya and BJP. But,as the surveys,I am also quite confused with regard to Kerala-eventhough,number 13 is lucky for Chandy!

  • v.jayaraman- 8 years ago

    I fully agree with with your survey report. I think Mr.Rajesh is living in London and not in Tamil Nadu.No one will have a sympathy for Mr.Karunanithi and for his age.People are worried for their daily bread where as his famil is getting listed in the worlds rich eople list.People of tamil nadu is always for the good leaders and not for corrupted leaders.Amma is the next CM

  • jayveni- 8 years ago

    The post poll report is the true refection of people of tamil nadu