CNN-IBN-The Week-CSDS Post Poll Survey for Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Kerala

• Jayalalithaa's AIADMK alliance moves ahead of DMK+ in Tamil Nadu; likely to secure majority
• Mamata Banerjee set to secure 3/4^th majority in West Bengal assembly; Left heads for its worst ever performance in three decades
• Congress likely to return to power in Assam; Gogoi remains preferred choice for chief minister's job
• Left Front marginally ahead in Kerala, but verdict too close to call

May 10, 2011:

A post poll survey conducted by CSDS for CNN-IBN and The Week in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal and Assam has thrown up some dramatic findings which buck the conventional outcomes.

The survey suggests a tight finish in Kerala, with the Left Democratic Front marginally ahead of the Cong-led United Democratic Front. In Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK alliance too appears to be ahead of the DMK+ in the race for the Tamil Nadu Assembly.

The CNN IBN-The Week-CSDS post poll survey also suggests the Tarun Gogoi led Congress government is set to return to power in Assam. In West Bengal, however, Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool alliance is set to sweep the state with over 3/4^th majority.

Tamil Nadu:

Jayalalithaa's AIADMK alliance moves ahead of DMK+ in Tamil Nadu; likely to secure majority

The CNN IBN-The Week-CSDS Post Poll survey suggests AIADMK supremo Jayalalithaa may have pipped the DMK alliance in the race for the assembly. Her alliance is likely to secure a majority by bagging between 120 and 132 seats in 234 seat assembly. The DMK alliance is projected to end up with a seat tally between 102 and 114 seats.

Even in individual popularity ratings, the post poll survey establishes Jayalalithaa for the first time has moved ahead of K Karunanidhi in individual popularity ratings and she has taken a five per cent lead over the DMK patriarch.

The survey suggests Jayalalithaa's alliance with Vijayakanth seems to be have helped her draw the young voters to her fold across the state with the DMK losing voters across age groups across the state.

Ironically, while the voters appeared satisfies with the governance, the survey suggests perceptions of corruption and nepotism has hurt the DMK in its campaign.

Seat Projections for Tamil Nadu

Vote shares

ADMK+ leading and gaining among women voters

AIADMK+ doing well among younger voters

Assam:

Congress likely to return to power in Assam; Gogoi remains preferred choice for chief minister's job

The CNN IBN-The Week-CSDS Post Poll survey suggests the Tarun Gogoi led Congress is set to come back to power in the state with their seat tally likely to be between 64 and 72 seats in the 126 seat assembly. Tarun Gogoi was the most preferred choice for the chief minister's post even as about 63 per cent people saying they were satisfied with the government's performance in the state.

Interestingly, 51 per cent of the respondents said they believed the government had succeeded in reducing the insurgency problem even as 65 per cent said development has improved in the last five years.

Vote-shares

Who would you prefer as the next Chief Minister of Assam?

Tarun Gogoi's popularity over the years

Has the Cong govt succeeded in reducing the insurgency problem?

Do you think overall development of the state over the last five years have improved or deteriorated?

Kerala:

Left Front marginally ahead in Kerala, but verdict too close to call

The CNN IBN-The Week-CSDS Post Poll Survey suggests the Left Front is marginally ahead of the Congress led UDF alliance in the state with the ruling front likely to bag between 69 to 77 seats in 140 seat assembly. The Congress led UDF's tally is likely to be between 63 to 71 seats.

The key findings of the poll suggest VS Achuthanandan was the most preferred choice for the chief minister with the CM's popularity going up by three per cent over 2006. A controversial issue related to the Achuthanandan's age too threw up key findings with the survey suggesting 68 per cent of the LDF supporters saying he wasn't too old to be the CM. Interestingly, 42 per cent of the UDF supporters too said he is not too old to be the chief minister.

VOTE SHARE ESTIMATES (IN %)

IS ACHUTHANANDAN TOO OLD TO BE THE CHIEF MINISTER

MOST PREFFERD CM, 2001- 2011

PUBLIC OPINION ON THE MAJOR CONTROVERSIES

AWARENESS OF SCAMS

ASSESMENT OF THE WORK DONE BY THE UDF AND LDF GOVERNMENTS

West Bengal

Mamata Banerjee set to secure 3/4^th majority in West Bengal assembly; Left heads for its worst ever performance in three decades

The CNN IBN-The Week-CSDS Post Poll Survey has suggested a complete sweep by the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress with the alliance set to bag between 222 and 234 seats in the 294 seat assembly. The poll also suggests the Left Front heading for its worst ever performance in three decades with the Front likely to secure between 60 and 72 seats.

The survey also suggests 45 per cent of the voters prefer Mamata Banerjee as the chief minister with only 30 per cent preferring Buddhadeb as the chief minister. The survey also suggests a steep drop of 15 per cent in the satisfaction levels for the Left Front government.

The post poll survey also suggests the electorate has rated the Left Front government's handling of the multiples crises and incidents in Nandigram, Singur and Lalgarh very poorly. The combination of these factors appears to have contributed to the Left returning with its lowest tally of vote share ever in the state.

Huge fall in vote share of Left Front.

Lowest vote share of Left in the last three decades.

Bengal wants Paribartan.

Note – Rest is Don't know. All figures in percentage.

Satisfaction with the Left Front Govt. has gone drastically down

Note - Rest is Don't know. All figures in percentage.

Sharpest decline for the Left in top & bottom sections

Note - All figures in percentage. Figures of 2006 are based on a similar post poll survey carried out by CSDS.

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