Best Media Info

Editor’s Picks
Special
Interviews
Events

ABP News Gujarat Opinion Poll: Congress gains ground against BJP in second round

According to the Tracker Poll conducted in last week of October, BJP’s seat share is expected to decline sharply from the prediction of survey conducted in August first half

After a long time the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has been ruling Gujarat for almost two straight decades, has a real fight on its hands. It’s popularity has declined drastically in the State in a short span of just two and a half months.

According to the second round of the Tracker Poll conducted in last week of October, BJP’s seat share is expected to decline sharply from the prediction of survey conducted in August first half.

 

Seat Projection (Aug 2017 Survey)

Seat Projection (Oct 2017 Survey)

BJP

144-152

113-121

Congress

26-32

58-64

Others

3-7

1-7

The second round of the Tracker Poll conducted by ABP News- Lokniti-CSDS in the State found the BJP to be securing 47 percent of the votes overall, down from 59 percent in August, and the Congress to be getting about 41 percent votes, a gain of 12 percentage points.

In the first half of August when ABP News- Lokniti-CSDS had conducted the first round of its pre-election Tracker in Gujarat, the ruling party was ahead of its main opponent, the Congress, by a whopping margin of 30 percentage points in terms of people’s voting preference. This enormous advantage has now shrunk, to merely 6 points.

While there’s no doubt that the BJP still enjoys a fairly comfortable lead and continues to be the dominant party in the State, the momentum however very clearly seems to have shifted towards the Congress.

Voting intention - BJP’s wide lead over Congress shrinks considerably

 

Voting intention in first half of Aug 2017 (%)

Voting intention in last week of Oct 2017 (%)

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)

59

47

Congress (Cong)

29

41

Others

12

12

 

Congress gains tremendously in Saurashtra & North Gujarat, BJP maintains big lead in Central & South

The survey found much of the Congress recovery (and BJP decline) to be taking place in two regions - Saurashtra-Kutchh and North Gujarat.

In Saurashtra, the Congress and the BJP were found to be neck and neck at 42 per cent votes each and in North Gujarat, the Congress was ahead of the BJP by seven points. Both these regions together account for 107 seats, which is well over half the seats in the 182-member Gujarat assembly.

Congress seems to be in deep trouble in its own traditional stronghold of Central Gujarat. The Tracker found the party to be trailing the BJP in this region by a wide margin of 16 percentage points. South Gujarat too seems to be swinging the BJP way for now. The survey found the BJP to be securing 51 percent of the votes here compared to the Congress’s 33 per cent.

 

Vote for BJP %

Vote for Cong %

Vote for Others %

Saurashtra and Kutchh (54 seats)

42 (-23)

42 (+16)

16 (+7)

North Gujarat (53 seats)

44 (-15)

49 (+16)

7 (-1)

Central Gujarat (40 seats)

54 (-2)

38 (+8)

8 (-6)

South Gujarat (35 seats)

51 (-3)

33 (+6)

16 (-3)

Anti-incumbency sentiment strengthens further

 

Early Aug %

End Oct %

Present BJP govt. in Gujarat should get another chance

50

41

Present BJP govt. in Gujarat should perhaps get another chance

13

9

Present BJP govt. in Gujarat should not get another chance

25

38

Non-committal

12

12

Congress now leads the BJP among farmers

Farmers, or kheduts as they are known in Gujarati, seem to have very strongly swung in favour of the Congress with 50 percent of them indicating their support for the opposition party. This is an improvement of 19 points since the previous Tracker round.

 

Vote for BJP %

Vote for Cong %

Vote for Others %

Farmers

44 (-18)

50 (+19)

6 (-1)

Non-farmers

48 (-10)

38 (+10)

14 (0)

BJP’s lead over Congress among traders narrows to just four points

Support for the Congress among traders and businessmen too has risen by 13 points in the last two and a half months, so much so that the BJP leads the Congress among this once loyal voter segment by just 4 points now. Much of this trading community shift towards the Congress could be attributed to the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

 

Vote for BJP %

Vote for Cong %

Vote for Others %

Traders

43 (-16)

39 (+13)

18 (+3)

Non-traders

48 (-11)

41 (+13)

11 (-2)

Congress unable to get high support of women

The survey also reveals a significant gender divide. While men were almost as likely to vote for the Congress as the BJP, women seem to prefer the BJP far more. However, this sharp gender divide is more an urban phenomenon than a rural one since women in villages were found to be slightly more supportive of the Congress than the BJP.

 

Vote for BJP %

Vote for Cong %

Vote for Others %

Men

45 (-14)

43 (+14)

13 (0)

Women

50 (-9)

39 (+10)

11 (-1)

BJP’s losses greatest among youngest voters

There is an age divide too. Young voters seem to be more in support of the Congress than middle aged and elderly voters. In fact the BJP’s decline among youngest voters (18-29-year-olds) is the steepest. The party had received 63 percent backing among them in August. It is now down to 44 percent, signalling a rising discontent with the BJP.

 

Vote for BJP %

Vote for Cong %

Vote for Others %

Youngest voters (18-29 years)

44 (-19)

42 (+14)

14 (+5)

Young voters (30-39 years)

49 (-9)

43 (+12)

9 (-3)

Middle aged voters (40-59 years)

47 (-11)

40 (+11)

13 (0)

Elderly voters (above 60 years)

50 (-9)

40 (+11)

11 (-2)

Rupani continues to be top choice for CM but Solanki & other Cong leaders are the big gainers

Vijay Rupani was the spontaneous choice of 24 percent of the respondents for the post of Chief Minister when the first tracker was conducted in early August, and now the same figure has come down to 18 percent, whereas the percentage of people naming Congress’s Bharatsinh Solanki has gone up by 5 points.

 

CM preference %

Change since Aug in % points

Vijay Rupani (BJP)

18

-6

Anandiben Patel (BJP)

7

+2

Bharatsinh Solanki (Cong)

7

+5

Narendra Modi (BJP)

5

-2

Shaktisinh Gohil (Cong)

3

+1

Hardik Patel (Other)

2

+2

Amit Shah (BJP)

2

0

Nitin Patel (BJP)

2

+1

Alpesh Thakore (Cong)

1

0

Shankersinh Vaghela (Other)

1

-1

Any other Congress leader

10

+4

Any other BJP leader

2

0

Other Leaders

1

-2

Did not take any name

39

-4

Most important election issue – price rise even more of a concern now than two and a half months ago

 

Early August %

End October %

Price rise

13

19

Unemployment

10

11

Poverty

9

10

Development

7

9

Condition of roads

7

6

Drinking water supply

5

6

Corruption

5

3

Farmer problems

3

2

GST and demonetization

1

2

Electricity supply

1

2

Educational facilities

1

2

Housing

3

1

Other issues (1 or less)

8

7

Non-committal

27

20

Hardik, Alpesh, and Jignesh are far more popular within their communities but many also dislike them; Alpesh’s popularity among his community has reduced quite a bit since August

The new leaders on the block – Alpesh Thakor, Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mevani – continue to be highly polarising figures, which is evident from the fact that not only has there been a slight rise in their likeability but a significant percentage point rise can also be seen within the category of people who do not like them. This is true not just among all voters taken together but among voters of their respective communities as well.

 

Like %

Dislike %

Not heard of him %

Noncommittal %

Hardik Patel (Among Patels only)

64 (+3)

30 (+3)

0 (-2)

6 (-4)

Alpesh Thakor (Among OBCs only)

46 (-7)

34 (+15)

14 (-5)

6 (-3)

Jignesh Mevani (Among Dalits only)

37 (+6)

31 (+10)

18 (-17)

14 (+1)

The second round of a Pre-Election Tracker in Gujarat was conducted by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, for ABP News. The survey was conducted from October 26 through November 1, 2017 among 3,757 voters in 200 locations (polling stations) spread across 50 assembly constituencies (the State has a total of 182 assembly constituencies).

Info@BestMediaInfo.com

Post a Comment